Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
If you’ve been reading this column lately, you’ll know that we’re a big proponent of sticking to the core principles that came out of a deep analysis of 2020 data. Don’t be afraid to pay up for pitching (both sites), and spending around $15,000 to $18,000 is often the optimal range in that department (DK).
We have 10 games on the Sunday main slate, and the pitching landscape has a handful of attractive names for us to consider.
Happy Burnes Day!
Corbin Burnes is absolutely head and shoulders above the rest today – even Trevor Bauer. His 3.0 opponent total and 68% win% against the Diamondbacks are fantastic baselines to work with. His 1.92 SIERA on the year, 13.9 K/9, 1.2 BB/9 and 52% GB% are remarkable. Especially for a guy facing a .297 wOBA split offense with a 24% K%. Freddy Peralta threw a gem against them just 2 days ago, and Burnes is even more talented. Look for a sparkling line for the big righty.
Quick side note: It’s a bit of a shame that Caleb Smith is facing him on the other end today, with virtually no chance at a win. He’s quietly putting together a solid year for the Diamondbacks, and has a 29% K% split vs MIL here for a great salary. He’s a SP2 on DK for a small percentage of your lineups (especially if you fade Burnes for whatever reason).
The Next Best Options
The next two names after Burnes that I want exposure to here are Sandy Alcantara against the Pirates and Dylan Cease against the Tigers.
Cease and his 69% win% is actually tops on this slate, and his 11.2 K/9 on the year is third-best on the slate after Burnes and then Bauer. The challenge is the walk rate (4.5 per 9) despite great whiff (15%) and chase metrics (34%). The Tigers are a great opponent though, as he can use their 27% K% split to his advantage if he has his A+ stuff.
Alcantara is perhaps the safer bet, even at a slightly higher price point (FD in particular). His elite ground ball skills and emerging strikeout abilities against a soft-hitting PIT club (27.5% hard hit rate vs RHP) keep the baseline a little higher here. And, with a matchup for MIA against Chad Kuhl who by SIERA is the slate’s softest SP (5.76), the offense could really get going out of the gate to drive up the win% (55% for MIA on the road).
Between the two, Cease is a great candidate based on salary on FD ($7,600) given the great K ceiling. Alcantara is the safer for DK purposes at almost the same salary.
One More for DK SP2 Slots
One other name I’ll throw out there if you choose to have more of a SP2 punt on DraftKings is Jorge Lopez. Despite a 5.29 ERA on the year, his SIERA is a full run lower (4.22) and he brings a solid combo of strikeout skills (9.2 per 9) and ground ball rate (49%) to the table. Cal Quantrill isn’t going to blow anyone away himself, and it’s not crazy to see BAL put together a competitive day for Lopez to have a cheap shot at a W. For $5,200 on DraftKings, and with 17.25+ DK points in 3 of his last 5 games, there’s real upside here.
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!
