Welcome to Chalk Talk – an article dedicated to deep diving the slates projected highest owned players.
In this article, we will look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is considered a hot, cold, or neutral option for this week.
As a note, if I am hot on a player, I will likely have ownership over the projected amount. Cold means I will have ownership considerably lower than the projected amount, while neutral means I am around the projected amount. It should be noted that ownership projections are still projections, and this article is based solely on my personal opinions. Importantly, ownership projections are always changing, so the values in this article may not be the values at the time of lock. This article is usually drafted late Friday/early Saturday before the slate.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7,600 | 8,300 | DAL@KC | 12.3% | 13.4% | QB |
Verdict: Neutral – We get a very across-the-board week on DraftKings and FanDuel as at the time of typing this the same player is chalk on each site at their given position. I also will say early now, welcome to Chiefs week in general apparently because of our five positions covered here, Cheifs players land at three of them. We got “vintage” Mahomes last week against the Raiders, throwing for 406 yards and five touchdowns in a 41-14 win on Sunday Night Football. This week the Chiefs take on the Cowboys at home in what is a very friendly matchup for the Chiefs offense. That being said, this is still a 12-game slate, and over-committing to Kansas City at the peak of ownership might not be the tournament edge we are looking for. That being said, Mahomes is very intriguing this game and for cash games, probably is the best choice outside of dare I say – Cam Newton.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| A.J. Dillon | 6,200 | 7,000 | GB@MIN | 19.1% | 18% | RB |
Verdict: Hot – I firmly expect this ownership number to grow as we lead into Sunday but if we stay around 20% then I will be massively over the field on AJ Dillon. Dillon and Aaron Jones have been a great combo on the year with Jones of course taking the 1A route to Dillon’s 1B. With Jones now out for a few weeks with an MCL sprain, AJ Dillon will fall into a workhorse role for the Packers against the 28th ranked rush defense in the NFL. Volume alone makes Dillon a great play, as I doubt the Packers look towards Patrick Taylor a lot in their backfield.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| Tyreek Hill | 8,200 | 8,700 | DAL@KC | 18.2% | 20.2% | WR |
Verdict: Hot – I am not in love with chasing all Chiefs this weekend like I already mentioned, but I do like Tyreek Hill against the Dallas secondary here. Hill has 39 targets over his last three games and Mahomes appears to have a little bit of his swagger back. While the 8.2k price tag is still high, it is actually pretty discounted off of Hill’s median price of the last two years. This game being the late game hammer and a home matchup for Kansas City sets up nicely for us.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| Travis Kelce | 7,100 | 7,300 | DAL@KC | 14.1% | 16.2% | TE |
Verdict: Cold – We simply can not roster all the Chiefs this week and Kelce is the odd man out for me. While Kelce is a consistent tight end option and someone who usually grades out at top of the position, the price tag, specifically on DraftKings is too high for me. Kelce does have 24 targets over his last three games but he has only cracked 20 fantasy points once in his last six games. This may be a personal play for me as I think everyone has their own strategies when it comes to how to approach the tight end spot, but seeing Kelce’s DraftKings price puts me way under the field on him this week.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| Carolina Panthers | 2,700 | 4,100 | CAR@WAS | 12.6% | 9.3% | DST |
Verdict: Neutral – I am leaving this sentence here for the rest of the season: Choosing which defense to play in DFS is similar to Chaos Theory; defensive touchdowns are very random, and any defense can be in the winning lineup on any given slate. Don’t overthink this one; play every defense equally based on what fits in your lineup.
I am a little surprised that the Browns don’t take the top spot here in a potential spot against Tim Boyle. But I suppose we get a slight discount on Carolina here who is fresh off a dominating performance against the Cardinals (and their backup quarterback). I don’t chase chalk defenses and neither should you and you need to remember that this is the highest variation spot in DFS. Even a team who gives up 35+ points can run into a defensive or special teams touchdown that is well out of our realm of prediction.
