DraftKings Tennis DFS Core Plays & Cheat Sheet – August 16, 2021 (8/16/21) – FantasyCruncher.com DFS Articles & Insights – fantasycruncher.com

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Taylor Fritz: $9,300 (vs. Ramos-Vinolas)

The top pricing of this slate is pretty wild with Jannik Sinner being priced all the way at $13,000. While Sinner does carry the best odds to win on the slate at -700, I have to be honest in saying I have never seen anyone priced into the $13,000. So my prefered play on this slate is going to need to fall a little cheaper and I like Taylor Fritz over Vinolas a lot here. Vinolas is a clay-court specialist who typically struggles away from the surface, posting just a 1-4 record on hard courts this year. These two have met three times in their careers but twice recently, with Fritz taking the win on hard courts and Ramos-Vinolas taking it on clay. I like the well-rounded power style of Fritz on hard courts and with Vinolas being just 1-7 on courts that aren’t clay, the edge here lies with Fritz. After a semi-final run at Atlanta, Fritz has dropped his last two matches in straight sets which is a small worry from me, but he still carries a 20-15 record and an 11% Ace%. I am hoping that the recent losses keep Fritz’ ownership down, because I do feel like this is a pretty good value here on the salary.

Heather Watson: $5,400 (vs. Sasnovich)

No matter how you want to break this one down, this play comes down to one simple thing: DraftKings pricing error. There were a handful of matches that DraftKings posted for this slate that did not have any betting markets released yet, so DraftKings essentially guessed on their pricing. Heather Watson ended up as the third most inexpensive player on the slate and she is only a slight underdog here at +120. Sasnovich is 12-11 on the year but carries a below-average serve and has a tendency to beat herself at times. I am not going to sit here and act like Heather Watson has had a strong recent run at all, but a three-set loss to Clara Burel after Watson starting up 6-1 was a close match. Her loss to Kristie Ahn went three sets as well as her loss to Iga Swiatek. So while Watson has been losing, she has been competitive – she has also fired 19 aces over her last two matches. But like Sasnovich, Watson has a tendency to beat herself as well. So yes, this is a pricing error and that puts it in play, but we also get a matchup of two ladies who are often inconsistent and carry pretty similar Elo rankings on hard courts – Sasnovich does have a small advantage. Watson is not the only pricing error on this slate, others include Shuai Zhang against Yulia Putintseva, where Zhang is just $5,600 despite only being a +115 underdog. Also, Leylah Fernandez falls as the second-best odds at -350 against Allison Riske and is only priced at $8,900 – while Jannik Sinner is $13,000.

Cheat Sheet