Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
If you’ve been reading this column since the start of the year, you’ll know that we’re a big proponent of sticking to the core principles that came out of a deep analysis of 2020 data. Don’t be afraid to pay up for pitching (both sites), and spending around $15,000 to $18,000 is often the optimal range in that department (DK).
It’s a fairly tight list of four names on the short list for us today.
He’s coming back and is in a great spot
Gerrit Cole leads the way in his return to the Yankees, holding a slate-best 3.2 run total for his opponent and a 72% win% which also leads the group. In his last 3 starts, he’s rocking a 16.0 K/9, 2.65 SIERA and 17% whiff rate – even though the ERA is at 6.06 in that time. The Angels are a higher K% team against RHP this year (24%) as the majority of their lineup is struggling to hit the ball well right now, so don’t be surprise if he feasts for a vintage 10+ K outing, too.
The award for best recent form goes to…
The next best option for me on this slate is actually Frankie Montas. His 2.91 SIERA in the last month is second-lowest in that time span, and his 11.9 K/9 is fantastic as well. He faces a tougher opponent today in the White Sox, but Dallas Keuchel is struggling to keep the ball in the yard right now and has a 5.06 SIERA over his last month of action.
I’m loving Montas for the way he’s rocking QS like it’s his day job (well, it actually is now that I think about it) going 6 straight with a quality outing – each finishing with at least 6 Ks and 10 in 3 of them, too. Don’t sleep on him tonight.
The wrong kind of regression is around the corner, but he’s still a decent option today
Cal Quantrill needs to be on your radar this evening as well, even though the Twins have a 5.0 run total at the moment. In his last month of action (6 starts), he’s averaging a quality start as well with a 1.25 ERA (4.18 SIERA) and a mere 22% hard contact rate.
Limiting hard contact has always been where he shines when things are going well, and a 54% ground ball rate further adds to the brilliance. The Twins, even without Nelson Cruz, are still a solid-hitting club against RHP. But it shouldn’t surprise if he’s able to turn in a solid start. My expectations are more in the 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks department rather than a 1 or 2 ER outing.
If you can’t pay all the way up for Cole, Gausman’s a solid fallback
Last but definitely not least is Kevin Gausman. He continues to be fairly pricey given the way he’s thrown this year, even though the skills have certainly regressed over the last month or so. In his last 5 starts his walk rate is all the way up to 5.2 per 9 with a slate-worst 44% hard contact rate, but the Ks are still there (11.5 per 9) and the underlying metrics indicate that things should start to turn around for the better.
His 3.3 opponent total and 65% win probability shine brightly as a combo o the slate, especially against a NYM team who are far softer against RHP (.300 wOBA; 25% K%) than LHP (.321 wOBA; 24% K%). Paying up more for Cole where you can is still the way to go for a higher spend strategy, but Gausman’s not a bad pivot at all given the solid matchup if you’re cash-strapped.
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!
