Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
In this article, we will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB, or just want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. It is pretty clear that stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB, therefore we will be approaching our hitters content from a stacking perspective.
Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Dbacks)
We have just a six-game Main Slate tonight so our options from the get-go are a bit limited here. Add in the fact that pitchers like Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler, Freddy Peralta, Joe Musgrove, Zack Greinke, and German Marquez are featured on this slate, and finding a stack that is going to be projected for more than four runs is pretty slim. The Dodgers here draw the best individual matchup against Caleb Smith – who for fairness has been pretty decent in his own regard, holding an ERA of just 3.46 and a WHIP of just 1.25. Smith however is coming off of the worst start of his season, in which he allowed five hits and five runs. In these articles, I usually will have a pretty solid breakdown of why I don’t like a pitcher, but I really don’t have a ton of bad things to say about Caleb Smith, the biggest knock is he doesn’t throw that hard and may overthrow his 4-seamer a bit as he uses it 50% of the time. The walk rate is pretty high here, and he is allowing a few too many barreled balls for my liking. Smith is limiting hard contact though, mostly through a high spin rate on his fastball. The fastball spin rate argument on players is one that will work itself out with the banning of sticky stuff, but some pitcher’s spin rates have dropped immensely after the ban, so it is wait and see. As mentioned, with a short slate and some talented arms, the Dodgers vs. the last-place Diamondbacks just feels like a safe stack here. I think Caleb Smith is an arm that can limit damage, but you hope to rise the pitch count and get him out after five so you can take advantage of the second-worst bullpen in the majors. The Dodger bats aren’t over-priced here either, while Muncy, Turner, Betts all are $5,000+, the rest of the team falls under that line. Pollock is just $3,500 and Will Smith just $4,200.
Los Angeles Angels (at Mariners)
It has been a while since I have got to write an “I dislike Chris Flexen” piece here, mostly because he has actually pitched decently over his last few starts. After a May that saw him post a 5.66 ERA (you can find most of my articles suggesting to stack against him during this month), Flexen had a 3.41 ERA in the month of June. One thing I heavily want to note here is Flexen, when he pitches well, has done it against some soft opponents. His last seven wins have come against: the Rangers three times, Indians, Tigers, Twins, and Rockies. What do these teams have in common? Extremely low ranked team batting. Flexen did face the Angels once this year, but it was back on April 30th and he only lasted four innings and allowed three earned. Despite an ERA that is now under four, Flexen is still allowing teams to hit over .275 against him and he sits near the bottom-third of the MLB in exit velocity and HardHit%. Not only that, Flexen is in the bottom 7% of all pitchers when it comes to K% and Whiff%, so we are getting a ton of balls in play here. Flexen isn’t a guy who is going to walk a lot of guys, as he has only issued 17 free passes on the year. But that is fine with us, as the Angels have drawn the fewest amount of walks in the entire MLB. So the Angels come in as a pretty free-swinging team, against a pitcher who pitches to contact. While Flexen hasn’t given up a lot of long balls, the Angels have hit a lot of them, sitting fourth in the MLB for homers, though a lot of that is on the back of Ohtani and Walsh. I will eat crow and say that Flexen has been solid recently, but the teams he has faced aren’t exactly confidence-building. While the Angels aren’t a top-ranked offense right now and are missing some key pieces, they still hold a good matchup on a slate that features elite arms.
