Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
If you’ve been reading this column since the start of the year, you’ll know that we’re a big proponent of sticking to the core principles that came out of a deep analysis of 2020 data. Don’t be afraid to pay up for pitching (both sites), and spending around $15,000 to $18,000 is often the optimal range in that department (DK).
Do we spend up over $10,000 tonight?
There are two strong options that are on my short list that are priced over $10k on DraftKings tonight: Walker Buehler ($11,500), pitching at home against the Cubs, and Jose Berrios ($10,400) at home against the Tribe. Buehler is the safer of the two options – but he also checks in $1,100 more expensive than Berrios. All in all, I think there are enough value plays on the board to easily use Buehler over Berrios – so if you are leaning that way when it comes to setting your exposures for tonight’s slate, I think you can safely prioritize Buehler out of the upper echelon spends tonight. The Cubs come into this one in the middle of the pack in terms of wOBA against RHP, while posting the 4th highest whiff percentage, sitting at 26.1%, helping raise the ceiling on Buehler a little bit in this one. For Berrios, the match-up against Cleveland is a little bit tougher – they do a pretty good job of putting the bat on the ball, ranking 22nd in K%, and while their line-up isn’t quite as dangerous as the Cubs, I do think that Buehler will be able to handle them with ease, making him my preferred option out of the two quality high spends on tonight’s slate.
But with all that said, my favorite option tonight is….
Luis Garcia, who gets the ball against the Tigers, who have the highest strike out rate in baseball against RHP, sitting at 26.5%. Garcia is quite reasonably priced, checking in at $8,700 tonight, which doesn’t break the bank. Using him and Buehler is a little bit cost prohibitive – and not something that I feel like you have to do for too many line-ups, but if you find yourself liking a few of the cheap value stacks on the board, I think that duo is worth strong consideration tonight. Garcia’s advanced metrics aren’t quite as sparkling as his 2.92 ERA indicates – but there is nothing egregious here – he has a 3.66 SIERA, misses plenty of bats (north of 10 K/9), and in this match-up, he is an outstanding option worth significant exposure in builds tonight for the heavily favored Astros.
He’s volatile – but probably worth mixing in…
Carlos Martinez got rocked last time out, but we have seen flashes of greatness from him, and in a match-up against the Pirates, I like the idea of mixing him into builds for $6,300. They do a decent job of putting the ball in play, but when Martinez is on – he has the ability to rack up strikeouts, as we saw in his start against the Cubs on June 13th where he punched out 8. The Pirates don’t have too much pop in their line-up, coming into this one with a wOBA against RHP of .290 – and although there is risk here, that is reflected in the price point. He’s worth considering tonight as a risky SP2 option to get modest exposure to in builds.
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!
