The Rocket League Spring Series continues tonight in the Oceania region. Draftkings again loaded up on the contests, giving us a four-game Rocket League DFS slate with the main contest offering $20,000 to first. The majority of RL slates so far have featured this region so we should be pretty familiar with these teams and players with a few exceptions. There has been some pretty important player movement, so you’re definitely going to want to make sure you’re familiar with the new rosters.
If you’re new to Rocket League DFS, I highly recommend checking out my primer here:
https://www.awesemo.com/esports/rocket-league-dfs-primer/
Rocket League DFS Match Breakdowns
(all matches are best of five3)
Ground Zero (-400) vs. Overt
This is a different Overt team than the one that played during the RLCS Season 9 regular season. All three players were released, and in their place Overt picked up Riv, Spratt and Cobbo. Riv and Cobbo actually played for different teams in Season 7 — of the two Riv rated as a better player, averaging .81 goals and 2.26 shots per game. We don’t have any data for Spratt at this level.
This is also a different Ground Zero team than the one that won the regional championship of Season 9. Decka is gone and SPYDOGE is standing in as a temporary third. We were able to get SPYDOGE at a cheap price for the first few Oceania slates, but he is now the ninth-most-expensive player on the slate. Even though they’re the biggest favorite, we may want to be careful getting too much GZG exposure because of the loss of Decka. Julz and Express are the first priorities on this team before SPYDOGE, with Julz as an exceptional one-off. With Decka gone, Julz is going to need to step up even more on offense. There is some positional uncertainty about how GZG are going to play, but I’m still not going to have very much exposure to SPYDOGE because of the price. Keep in mind that during the regular season (albeit on a different team), SPYDOGE was almost completely dedicated to a midfield role and didn’t accrue nearly the stats that Julz and Decka did. I expect Express to slot in on the attack with Julz, though at his price it’s pretty tough to get there except in stacks.
Renegades (-312) vs. Mindfreak
Renegades were a tough team to figure out during Season 9 league play. They struggled to integrate CJCJ and deal with the transfer of Torsos and got off to a very slow start — they lost to this very same Mindfreak team in four games in the first matchup of the season. They did win the regional championship the season prior and clearly have the respect of oddsmakers as a result.
On the other side, Mindfreak went 5-2 during league play yet flamed out during the regional championships. I wonder how anomalous that record is, especially when you look at their stats from Season 9; they averaged the fewest in-game points (not the best barometer of skill in RL, but still), the third-fewest goals, the third-fewest shots, the third-fewest shots against and the fewest saves. For comparison’s sake, Renegades averaged a full 4.44 more shots taken per game than Mindfreak (11.46 vs. 7.22). Now, we can talk about xG and say that Renegades’ 11.46 shots were bad shots and Mindfreak’s 7.22 shots had a better chance of going in, but 4.44 shots is an extreme difference in the amount of chances these teams were taking.
I tend to question these teams that post good records despite not accumulating the types of stats we usually see from elite teams. Because the regular season is typically only 7-10 games for each team, it’s similar to the NFL where a team can make the playoffs with poor underlying stats simply due to randomness and the lesser amount of games these teams play.
All that is to say I like Renegades on this slate and don’t like Mindfreak (except if we’re hoping to accrue a bunch of saves with a one-off). DraftKings priced Renegades down for this slate — maybe because of the record Mindfreak posted last season — so they’re going to be one of my favorite stacks. CJCJ and Siki posted the best offensive numbers for Renegades during Season 9, combining the two in stacks makes a lot of sense. Siki plays more of a striker role for the team with CJCJ setting him up, and since we’re chasing goals on DraftKings, he makes a lot of sense even at $10,200. We’re also getting a discount on CJCJ with him being priced down, similar to last week with GarrettG on NRG where it paid off in a big way as GarrettG ended up in the optimal lineup. Kamii is one of the cheapest players on the board, a one-off is acceptable due to the price and of course, he makes a lot of sense in stacks. I would note that on DraftKings we’re probably going to want to cap team stacks at two players with this being a four-game slate.
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Fury (-222) vs. TGBU
I really don’t understand the pricing by DraftKings this week on Fury. Scarth is somehow the second-most-expensive player on the board and Amphis is priced almost evenly with SPYDOGE. Keep in mind that during Season 9, both league play and the regional championship, Amphis was involved in 72% percent of Fury’s goals. He was third in the league in goals, eighth in shots taken and rated out as one of the best players in the region.
Their opponents are (fantastically) named The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. They feature Walcott, Misty and Cavemanben. Walcott and Misty both played in RLCS Season 9; their two teams combined for a 2-12 record. Cavemanben has never played at this level.
I can’t help but think this is a clear misprice by the odds source that I use — Walcott and Misty weren’t necessarily the reason their teams were bad. However, Fury should roll through this matchup without too much trouble. Amphis is a priority to me at his price, both as a one-off and in stacks. KennySalmon is my second-favorite play on Fury because of his price. To me, there isn’t too much of a difference between him and Scarth as a player, yet Kenny is $1,600 cheaper.
As for The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, there are two kinds of people in Rocket League: those who shoot and those who are forced to make saves. In this case, TGBU should be the ones forced to make the saves. I actually like Walcott as a one-off due to his price and the fact that he showed an ability to score goals in league play, even when his team was losing games. If he can get a couple goals and a bunch of saves, he may end up in the optimal lineup.
Cringe Society (-312) vs. Canberra Havoc
The last game of the slate should be the most interesting with a reformed Canberra Havoc squad facing off against a reformed Cringe Society. Ssteve was on Team Esper who did a hilariously bad job of hiding the fact that they threw the last game of their final match of season 9, yet he managed to avoid a ban from RLCS play because he was clearly the only player that was trying. Now he’s going to be counted on by Canberra to produce goals, though I think he’ll find it tough here.
Cringe Society also made a major move between Season 9 and the Spring Series — releasing SPYDOGE and adding Decka. This addition is a fairly big deal because this now gives CS three of the top-six shot takers in league play. I’m not exactly sure how Decka will slot in, but I expect this team to challenge Renegades offensively and for them to score a lot of goals. Decka is the premier option from CS, but all three players are most definitely in play as stacks or one-offs. Torsos and Drippay are roughly equivalent plays for me, so I’ll take the $400 discount with Torsos.
Top Rocket League DFS Targets: Julz, CJCJ, Siki, Amphis, Decka, Torsos
Top Stacks: Renegades, Fury, Cringe Society
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