DraftKings League of Legends Esports DFS Rundown (LEC) – July 1, 2022 – FantasyCruncher.com DFS Articles & Insights – fantasycruncher.com

We move into week three in the LEC with two teams tied for first with 4-1 records. One of those teams is G2 to which is likely no surprise but the other is Excel who has been a force to start the split with wins over Fnatic, Mad Lions, and Team Vitality. After the top, we have four teams with 3-2 records in Fnatic, Mad Lions, Rogue, and Astralis. One of those are not like the other in Astralis who has three wins against Misfits, BDS, and SK – aka the three teams currently at 1-4. But hey, I can’t knock Astralis for taking care of business. So what have we actually learned two weeks into the split. Well, Excel is for real despite oddsmakers somehow still not buying in. Patrik sits second in the LEC with 5.8 kills per game and four XL starters sit in the top ten for KDA. They are also a team who loves to fight together, as Mikyx, Markoon, and Patrick rank 1-4-6 in kill participation. We have also learned that the skill gap still exists as weekly we can look to target teams against Misfits, SK, and Team BDS. All of Misfits and SK Gaming rank in the bottom 10 in KDA. After an 0-2 start, Rogue has won three straight and with six of the ten teams making the playoffs, Team Vitality for me looks to be the team that will be on the outside looking in. Despite the strong team on paper, that team has a long way to go in terms of actually grabbing some big wins.

So to start off week three we have two of the worst teams in Misfits against BDS as our opener. Misfits are a slight favorite here and while they finally got a win in their last match, they have looked beyond poor. Team BDS can ride the upset over G2 for a confidence booster, though it is hard to not overstate how bad these teams have looked so far. Someone has to win here and the hope is that they don’t just play a 40+ minute sloppy kill-fest of a match. It is always a risk here with these kind of matchups. If targeting it I rather just grab BDS exposure for savings. But if really going for savings here, Excel is once again an underdog here against Rogue. I understand factoring in a lot of what we saw in the Spring here, but Excel was one of the hottest teams during the end of the Spring and now one of the hottest at the start of Summer. They have statement wins over Fnatic, Mad, and Vitality already, and they match up well against Rogue. The respect has to be earned here clearly, but outside of losing to G2, I am not sure what more we can ask from Excel as statistically they are backed up here as a top-2 team. We also see the team sit high in terms of kill participation, so for DFS purposes, we take the team fights when we can get them. Vitality opens as around a -200 favorite over SK and that feels correct here. SK has looked lost so far and while I think Vitality is very volatile, they should get things done here. The switch to Haru in jungle still looks like a meh decision, as he hasn’t done much to show differently than Selfmade. Fnatic is a -242 favorite over Astralis as they should be and G2 against Mad Lions lines up as a very interesting matchup in our closing match. Mad Lions have looked strong with Nisqy in mid lane but Caps is the toughest matchup in the league. I still lean G2 here, though Mad exposure makes some sense as if they keep it close G2 has been known to extend games and inflate the kill numbers a bit. Statistically, G2 and Excel have carried DFS rosters so far and it won’t be too hard to roster both on Friday. Though at this time, ownership appears swayed to the side of Vitality and Misfits per projections.

Cheat Sheet

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