Core Plays
Kyle Larson – DK: $10,600 | FD: $13,500 – Starting 1st
Last year at Sonoma Kyle Larson put on an absolute clinic. After starting first, much like this race, Larson went on to lead 57 of the 90 laps including 29 of the fastest. In practice and qualifying, Larson had the fastest car, and he showed it in the race as well as he started first and finished first. This year, the race has been extended a bit to feature 110 laps, but Larson still looked to be the fastest on the track again this year at Sonoma. Larson topped the practice times this week and also topped the qualifying. Larson’s race last year graded out as one of the best run races of the year by driver rating and while Larson is the most expensive on the board for Sunday, he is actually $700 cheaper than we have gotten him over the last few weeks. Writing up Larson as the top play is not something I just do weekly to do easily, I legitimately believe he is in the highest ceiling spot week to week so it is negligent of me to not write that up on the basis of “doing something different”. This is a track that Larson ran laps around drivers last year, literally and nothing from his practice or qualifying speeds are showing that he isn’t primed to do the exact same thing this year. It is always risky rostering the guy starting first, but if that guy holds the front, that is how you get your quick and easy dominator.
I do want to note that when I write up Larson, I want to give a few pivots off of him. Martin Truex is starting 28th on Sunday but has had a lot of past success here with a third, first, and first over three of his last four races. Those races featured 59, 62, and 25 laps led as well as 21, 19, 16 fastest laps. Last year Truex finished third and didn’t lead a lap, but still turned in a near-optimal result. Truex will need to battle to the front, but with limited laps place differential is a big metric here.
Brad Keselowski – DK: $6,600 | FD: $4,500 – Starting 22nd
It’s pretty crazy to see the fall Brad Keselowski has taken this season. In 17 races he has just three top ten finishes, though he does still hold an average finish of 17th. The results haven’t been great, but when we factor in the price and now what we should be expecting they actually aren’t too bad. Keselowski has 33 or more fantasy points in three of his last four races and his price here matches the lowest it has been all season. Last year at Sonoma, Keselowski started 9th and finished 15th, prior to that was an 18th, 13th, and 3rd. Since 2011, Keselowski’s worst finish is 22nd. That is also the starting spot we get on him today. Taking into account the last three races run at Sonoma, Keselowski grades out as the 13th best driver at the track. Keselowski isn’t some world-beating road course driver, but the price has fallen so low here that he has fallen into strong consideration. In Keselowski’s last 13 road course races, he has finished in the top-20 10 times.
Cheat Sheet
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High | Kyle Larson (10.6k / 52.58) (13.5k / 52.58) |
| Chase Elliott (10.4k / 50.67) (14k / 50.67) | |
| Kyle Busch (10.1k / 62.17) (12.5k / 62.17) | |
| Martin Truex (10k / 71.69) (13k / 71.69) | |
| Medium | Joey Logano (9k / 46.72) (9.5k / 46.72) |
| AJ Allmendinger (8.8k / 38.77) (11.5k / 38.77) | |
| Kevin Harvick (8.1k / 49.26) (7k / 49.26) | |
| Alex Bowman (7.9k / 30.81) (7.8k / 30.81) | |
| Low | Erik Jones (7.5k / 39.83) (6.5k / 39.83) |
| Aric Almirola (7.3k / 23.85) (5.5k / 23.85) | |
| Brad Keselowski (6.6k / 30.32) (4.5k / 30.32) | |
| Harrison Burton (5.6k / 14.41) (4k / 14.41) | |
| Todd Gilliland (5.1k / 11.43) (3.5k / 11.43) | |
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