Fight Study (3/19/22)
The big boys of the UFC take center stage when the heavyweight division’s 11th ranked contender, Tom Aspinall, takes to the octagon with the division’s 6th ranked contender, Alexander Volkov, in London on Saturday. This fight has been narrowly handicapped with Aspinall being the favorite. In DFS contests, he is also the more expensive play. Aspinall is available for $8,300 on DraftKings and $18 on Fanduel. Volkov can be rostered for $7,900 and $16 respectively. As the Main Event, this fight has been set for 5 rounds of fight action, but current odds point to a more rapid conclusion and this fight is a -190 favorite to end before reaching the judges’ scorecards.
Aspinall has a professional record of 11-2 with 9 wins by KO/TKO and 2 wins by submission. He is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC with finishes in all 4 fights. He has 3 first-round finishes over that span, and his longest fight in the UFC lasted just 69 seconds into the second round. He has been submitted once in his career but has never been finished by KO/TKO. In fact, his only other loss came by way of disqualification for an illegal elbow. Volkov is clearly the toughest opponent he has faced. He is also one of the biggest. Aspinall will give up 2 inches in height as well as 2 inches in reach to Volkov on Saturday.
Volkov has a career record of 34-9 with 22 wins by KO/TKO, 3 wins by submission, and 9 wins by decision. He is 4-3 over his last 7 fights with finishes in 2 of those wins. Volkov is adept at using his height to his advantage, but Aspinall is a tall fighter himself, and his edge won’t be as much in this matchup. Key to his success will be his ability to wear down Aspinall and challenge his cardio. Volkov likes to make his move after fighters have worn themselves out early in fights. Since the beginning of 2015, Volkov has 6 finishes – only one of those has come in the first round. His experience in 5-round fights will be his biggest edge in this fight. Look for his game plan to feature a defensive focus in the early rounds.
This fight features a fighter with a killer instinct against an experienced veteran who knows how to make his opponents fight his way. Volkov has not been finished in nearly 3 1/2 years. Aspinall has never won a fight without a finish. The ability of Volkov to keep this fight upright and at distance will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this one. I don’t know if he can do that against a fighter with Aspinall’s finishing skills on his feet and on the ground. I expect Aspinall to come out aggressively and look for the knockout. If Volkov is successfully defending his strikes, Aspinall will shoot for the takedowns. On the ground, Aspinall has already his first UFC submission in February of last year.
In DFS contests, I prefer Aspinall on both platforms and in all formats. He has better finishing skills, a better finishing rate, and he is the betting favorite. I like him to get a finish in this one, but at the same time, I respect the savvy veteran that Volkov is. Still, I think Aspinall’s aggression may be too much for him, and I see this one having the potential of being a short fight. Aspinall is +150 to get the finish in this fight. Volkov is +285. I like those odds for Aspinall inside the distance, and I expect his fantasy output to be a good one. In multi-entry contests, I will look to feature both fighters in lineups, but I will give the majority of the exposure to Aspinall. He has the better scoring potential along with the better chance at winning.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.
