Fight Study (3/5/22)
The UFC’s welterweight division will be on full display as the division’s 6th ranked contender, Jorge Masvidal, takes on the division’s top-ranked contender, Colby Covington, from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Both men are coming back from losses to the division’s champion, Kamaru Usman, and Covington will be the heavy favorite in this fight. He is the more expensive DFS play as well, and those looking to roster him may do so for $9,400 on DraftKings and $23 on Fanduel. Masvidal is a much less expensive play, and he is available for $6,800 and $12 respectively. As the Main Event, this fight has been scheduled for 5 rounds of MMA action, and current odds make this fight a -150 favorite to go the distance.
Masvidal has suffered consecutive losses to the welterweight champ, Usman. Overall, his record stands at 35-15 with 16 wins by KO/TKO, 2 wins by submission, and 17 wins by decision. His record over his last 10 fights is 6-4. Only Usman has finished him over that span (once in their two fights), and Masvidal has finished his opponent in 5 of those 6 wins. His confidence is likely down as he was dominated in both fights with the champ, and he has not had his arm raised since November of 2019. Still, if he can keep this fight upright, he should be able to contend well with Covington who gives up 2 inches in reach to Masvidal. On the ground, however, he will be at a disadvantage.
Covington has also suffered his last two losses at the hands of Usman. His professional record stands at 16-3 with 4 wins by KO/TKO, 4 wins by submission, and 8 wins by decision. Covington had put together an impressive 7-fight win streak before his first loss to the champ. His all-around game is very high level, but on his feet, he will not have any advantage against a striker of Masvidal’s skill set. Watch for him to shoot for takedowns early and often in this fight. Covington has double-digit takedown attempts in 5 of his last 8 fights. On the ground, he will have the edge, and his path to victory lies in his ability to bring this fight to the mat.
Masvidal’s experience with Usman should help him in this fight. He has been working on his wrestling defense a good deal over the past few years, and he will look to fend off takedowns to keep this fight upright. Covington can hold his own on his feet, but his true edge will be with his ground game. This fight figures to feature a battle of styles. Whoever is able to take this fight in the direction they so desire will have a good chance at victory. In my opinion, these fighters are not as separated as the odds would indicate. I do believe that Covington is the more complete fighter, but if Masvidal can defend takedowns, he is very capable of winning a bout with his striking.
With the massive gap in pricing, both fighters are playable in DFS contests. Masvidal is especially playable on DraftKings where his salary is below $7K. This fight is a favorite to go the full 25 minutes, and this allows for him to accumulate scoring even in a losing effort. For this reason, he is my preferred play on that platform. On Fanduel, he is still priced well and is worth decent exposure for a fighter with a small cost and solid floor. Covington will have a much harder time bringing value to his price tag on both platforms. However, if he is able to execute takedowns with regularity, his potential to accumulate scoring can be significant. Overall, I believe Masvidal has a chance in this fight. If he defends the takedowns, he will have a chance to win this fight. Given the disparity in salaries, I will be giving more exposure to Masvidal in all formats and on both platforms.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.
