Top DFS Plays for UFC 271: Adesanya vs Whittaker (2/12/22)
The UFC heads to the Lone Star State for more MMA action from Houston. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
CARLOS ULBERG (DK $8,900 / FD $18) – Ulberg is still a bit of a wild card with only 4 fights to date, but he is a top play on Saturday. His record is 3-1 and he has finishes in two of those fights including a first-round KO in The Contender Series. Meanwhile, his opponent, Fabio Cherant, has been finished in the first round of both of his UFC fights so far. Ulberg is a better than two and a half to one favorite and his odds to finish are fourth-best of all fighters of UFC 271 at -130 to defeat Cherant inside the distance. Yet, his salary is sixth overall on both DraftKings and Fanduel. Ulberg is a significant favorite, is favored to get a finish, and is priced affordably. With his high likelihood of victory and significant scoring potential, find a place for him in your DFS lineups.
(At the time of this writing, Carlos Ulberg is -258 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 72.50 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
DERRICK LEWIS (DK $8,800 / FD $18) – Dating back to early 2019, Lewis is 5-1 over his last 6 fights with his only loss over that span coming from top-ranked contender, Ciryl Gane. Over his last 3 victories, he has one first-round finish and two second-round finishes. He will face Tai Tuivasa, a powerful heavyweight with 12 wins by KO/TKO in his career. However, the oddsmakers realize that Lewis is the heavyweight with the best chance here. Although Tuivasa has the ability to get a knockout anytime he fights, Lewis has an even better chance and at a second-tier salary, he brings top-tier scoring potential to this one. Having an extra inch in height as well as four inches in reach over his opponent will improve Lewis’ chances of getting a finish on Saturday, and he is a -135 favorite to do just that.
(At the time of this writing, Derrick Lewis is -186 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 65.65 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
JACOB MALKOUN (DK $8,000 / FD $15) – There is understandable hype around Malkoun’s opponent, A.J. Dobson, in Saturday’s middleweight fight. Still, Dobson has yet to fight in the UFC, and Malkoun is coming off of a unanimous decision victory over Abdul Razak Alhassan who has 5 UFC wins to his credit. Dobson has yet to fight a fighter on Malkoun’s level, and Malkoun is a narrow minus-money underdog in this fight. Dobson is undefeated, but Malkoun has just one loss in his career (a first-round KO from the hands of Phil Hawes in Malkoun’s UFC debut). I like Malkoun to get the upset here and get a decision win on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Jacob Malkoun is -104 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 54.14 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!
