Fight Study (1/22/22)
The heavyweight title is on the line when interim champ, Ciryl Gane, faces the current champ, Francis Ngannou, in Anaheim on Saturday. One of two impressive win streaks will end with Gane having won 10 straight and Ngannou looking to increase his streak to 6 fights in a row. Gane is the betting favorite in this fight and he will carry the bigger salaries in DFS contests. He can be rostered for $8,400 on DraftKings and $18 on Fanduel. Ngannou is available for $7,800 and $17 respectively. As the Main Event, this fight has been scheduled for 5 rounds of fight action, however, current odds point toward an earlier conclusion as this fight is a -280 favorite to finish before reaching the judges’ scorecards.
Gane is a former kickboxer with a professional MMA record of 10-0. He has 4 wins by KO/TKO, 3 wins by submission, and 3 wins by decision. He is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC, and most recently defeated Derrick Lewis by third-round TKO in August of 2021. Gane has made easy work of every opponent he has faced to date, but he will be facing an opponent unlike any he’s faced before in Ngannou. He will need to figure out a game plan to contend with Ngannou’s legendary power. His kickboxing pedigree will need to play a big role in this fight. If he is able to keep Ngannou at a distance with kicks, he may find a way to avoid the fate of so many who have come before him.
Ngannou has a professional record of 16-3 with 12 wins by KO/TKO, 4 wins by submission, and he has never won by decision. He has once gone the distance in a 5-round fight – a loss in his first bout with the former champ, Stipe Miocic. Ngannou took his revenge against Miocic in the rematch. In March of last year, he defeated Miocic by second-round TKO to win the belt. Ngannou’s power is unprecedented. In his 16 career wins, 11 have come in the first round and 5 have come in the second round. He has lost all fights that have gone beyond 10 minutes. Ngannou must find a way to win before this fight extends into the third round.
Ngannou will come out firing early. He only needs to land one punch to end things, and Gane’s game plan will be focused on survival early in the fight. Gane is likely looking to wear Ngannou down and take advantage of that in rounds 3-5. Additionally, look for Gane to employ kicks frequently to keep Ngannou off-balance and at distance. Currently, Gane may be the only heavyweight who presents a real threat to Ngannou. This fight promises to thrill fight fans, and there is no guarantee either way. However, I am surprised to see Ngannou in the role of the underdog here.
On both platforms, this fight should be played quite heavily in GPP contests. The winner of this fight figures to score well, and I don’t anticipate a fight that goes into the championship rounds. Current odds make this fight a -175 favorite to finish before the midpoint of the 4th round. With the less expensive salary and a long history of quick finishes, Ngannou is easily my preferred fighter in this matchup. Still, Gane’s chances in this fight are significant and I would use give exposure to both fighters in multi-entry contests. Ultimately, I like Ngannou to win here and his ceiling figures to be much higher.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.
