Welcome to Chalk Talk – an article dedicated to deep diving the slates projected highest owned players.
In this article, we will look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is considered a hot, cold, or neutral option for this week.
As a note, if I am hot on a player, I will likely have ownership over the projected amount. Cold means I will have ownership considerably lower than the projected amount, while neutral means I am around the projected amount. It should be noted that ownership projections are still projections, and this article is based solely on my personal opinions. Importantly, ownership projections are always changing, so the values in this article may not be the values at the time of lock. This article is usually drafted late Friday/early Saturday before the slate.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| Taysom Hill | 5,600 | 7,700 | NO@NYJ | 11.9% | 10% | QB |
| Josh Allen | 7,800 | 8,800 | BUF@TB | 8.8% | 12.2% | QB |
Verdict: Hot/Neutral – For the first time in a few weeks we get a cheaper priced quarterback as the highest owned on DraftKings. Taysom Hill draws an elite matchup against the Jets defense this week and while last week’s 27-17 loss to the hands of Dallas and a 46% completion percentage from Hill seems like a bad game, it still translated to 27.66 fantasy points as he ran 11 times for 101 yards. Hill still has a broken finger, we can factor this heavily into the poor completion percentage but we get the return of Alvin Kamara here and a strong matchup against the Jets, despite being in the New York elements. The rushing floor here alone makes this a strong play and having Kamara as a dump-off option should factor a ton here. I am pretty hot on this play for salary saving, though I do not believe it is a play that needs a direct stack as Hill functions fine as a one-off play.
In terms of Josh Allen, we know what we are getting. The Bills and Bucs carry the slate’s highest total at 54 points and Allen has gone over 20 fantasy points in seven of his last nine starts. I am removing last week’s game against the Patriots from that stat as the 40+ MPH wind gusts factored heavily into that game. Allen and Brady have been high-owned options all year with their high volume usage with arm and legs and nothing has changed here and nothing will likely change the rest of the season. This game has all the makings for a shootout, but we have been in this position before and seen defenses shine. That being said, the Bucs pass defense is still giving up the 20th most passing yards. 14 weeks into the season we pretty much have to approach Allen and Brady the same way we have all year and that is if mass entering tournaments, 10-20% ownership seems like the safe bet. We only get one quarterback, we should diversify it.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| Austin Ekeler | 8,300 | 9,200 | NYG@LAC | 22.5% | 29.2% | RB |
Verdict: Neutral – We get some pretty high ownership projections here on a high price running back, but when we factor that the Chargers will be without their target leader in Keenan Allen for the game we have a shifted workload in the offense. Now, Ekeler is already seeing a pretty high target share for a running back, so it is hard to imagine that drastically increasing just due to Allen being out. I am not saying that the Allen news is making people overreact to the Ekeler play, but Ekeler has already seen six or more targets in six of his last eight games. While I do admit this number is likely to rise and the matchup is solid, just how much it rises remains in question. We also do need to consider that Ekeler himself has been a little banged up with an ankle injury, though it is no real fear outside of mention that it exists. I think Ekeler may cede some carries in turn for targets and that is fine with us. But, I also think near 30% projected ownership on a site that is just half-PPR isn’t the smash play that it seems like. I will be around the projected totals on each site this week, though likely a little higher on DraftKings and a little lower on FanDuel.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| Mike Williams | 6,000 | 6,900 | NYG@LAC | 19.8% | 20.5% | WR |
| Tyreek Hill | 8,500 | 8,700 | LV@KC | 15% | 24.7% | WR |
Verdict: Neutral – Mike Williams chalk week – it’s fine… It’s fine. It’s just… Nothing special. That statement could blow up in my face, but it is just really hard to trust Mike Williams week-to-week. Outside of last week against the Bengals, Williams had been held under 100 yards receiving for six straight games and had a four-week stretch there where he didn’t break 7.8 fantasy points. Williams also has just one touchdown over his last seven. Williams has been on the COVID list and he is slated to clear protocols and play this weekend, but that also means a week without practice. Sure, no Keenan Allen this week, but with no Williams at practice, I don’t think the general gameplan around him changes. I will have exposure to him due to price but I don’t think this is as much of an absolute smash play as it seems. I much rather roster a guy like Guyton who we can save on and has been built into the game plan for this week.
Tyreek Hill is another “I don’t need to over-explain it to you” kind of guy. The reader who reads this (you), I want to talk to you like you know what you are doing, you know the NFL – I am not here to just tell you things you already know. If you don’t already know, an article based around ownership numbers probably isn’t going to help your overall DFS play. Therefore, we know what we get with Hill, a high-volume homerun-hitting potential player who has had some duds this year. Over Hill’s last six games, three of them have ended with fantasy scores under ten fantasy points and two of them under 5.3. Hill only saw five targets last week against the Broncos but had seen ten or more in his previous four games. What we have not seen recently is the big 60+ yard touchdown play to Hill, but we all know those are in the arsenal. Hill will always remain a high ceiling option and with some savings on this slate it doesn’t surprise me that people are gravitating to him against the Raiders. These two teams met just a few weeks back and Hill caught 7-of-10 targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns. I will probably be heavier on Hill on FanDuel, as I have said before when the prices on DraftKings and FanDuel are near the same, the actual value is on FanDuel then.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| Travis Kelce | 7,400 | 7,500 | LV@KC | 10.9% | 17.1% | TE |
Verdict: Neutral – One thing I dislike when writing this article is when the most expensive player at a position is also the highest projected owned. Because at that point I feel like there is a line in the sand on game and roster theory that comes into play way more than saying if I like a player or not. So I will give this from two different sides. Side one, Travis Kelce is the best tight end play on the board this week against the Raiders defense who ranks dead last in the NFL against tight ends. The Raiders are allowing 8.75 targets to tight ends per game and Kelce caught 8-of-10 targets for 119 yards last time they met. Flipside, that performance against the Raiders in week 10 was Kelce’s highest output since week 4. Paying $7,400 is a lot and you may have to decide if Kelce is the guy you want to build around. I think again, this is a much better play on FanDuel, as Kelce has only found the end zone six times this year. Kelce had just three catches for 27 yards last week and got a price increase. He is just slightly out of my pricing range, but I will likely have 10% to just not feel like a sheep if he destroys a Raiders team that screams “play the tight end” on paper.
| Name | DK Salary | FD Salary | Matchup | DK Ownership Projection | FD Ownership Projection | Position |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3,100 | 4,500 | SEA@HOU | 13.1% | 10.8% | DST |
Verdict: Hot– I am leaving this sentence here for the rest of the season: Choosing which defense to play in DFS is similar to Chaos Theory; defensive touchdowns are very random, and any defense can be in the winning lineup on any given slate. Don’t overthink this one; play every defense equally based on what fits in your lineup.
Defenses against the Texans have been chalk all year and actually one that has paid off. This play is great on DraftKings and while I usually say don’t chase the chalk, I will probably be way over the 13% here and more towards the 20-25% range. That being said, defenses are random, DST scoring is random, and kick returns are random. Good luck out there.
