Fight Study (8/6/22)
The light heavyweight division will be the focal point of the UFC when the division’s 10th-ranked contender, Jamahal Hill, takes on the 6th-ranked contender, Thiago Santos, in Las Vegas on Saturday. Hill has been cast as the heavy favorite in this one, and his DFS salaries reflect that. He is priced much higher than his opponent, and those looking to roster him may do so for $9,000 on DraftKings and $22 on Fanduel. Santos is priced at $7,200 and $15 respectively. This fight is the Main Event and as such, it is scheduled for 5 rounds of fight action, however, current odds point toward a much earlier conclusion and have made this fight a -400 favorite to end inside the distance.
Hill has a professional record of 10-1 with 1 no contest decision. To date, he has 6 wins by KO/TKO and 4 wins by decision. His only loss was a TKO loss to Paul Craig in June of last year. He has since rebounded with consecutive first-round KO wins over Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker. He is a striker first and foremost, and he will be looking to finish Santos with his fists in this one. He has a 3-inch reach advantage and a 2-inch height advantage over Santos to bolster his striking on Saturday. Additionally, he is just now entering his fighting prime while Santos is a fighter on the decline at 38-years-old.
Santos has a career record of 22-10 with 15 wins by KO/TKO, 1 win by submission, and 6 wins by decision. He has lost 4 of his last 5 fights and rarely does a fighter in his late thirties turn things around after a slide like this. He still has the power to finish opponents, but he is not the dynamic fighter he once was. His deficit in both height and reach will play a big role in this fight. He doesn’t have the speed of Hill and will need to find a way to close the distance against his longer, faster, and younger opponent. This is a tall order and the oddsmakers have made this clear in the betting lines.
Hill is a -180 favorite to win this fight inside the distance. There is no reason to dispute this line. In losses, Santos has been finished 60% of the time with 3 losses by KO/TKO and 3 losses by submission in his 10 career losses. As he approaches 40, he becomes more and more vulnerable as a fighter. Meanwhile, Hill is a fighter on the rise. Outside of the Craig fight, he has 4 consecutive finishes (although his first-round KO of Klidson Abreu was overturned due to positive a marijuana test) in the UFC. Of those 4 opponents, only Ovince St. Preux made it past the first round (he was finished in the second round). This fight clearly points toward a clean victory for Hill.
In DFS contests, I prefer Hill on both platforms and in all formats. He will be the most dangerous fighter in the octagon Saturday evening, and he is currently favored to get a conclusion bonus. Santos has a puncher’s chance, but outside of a few entries in mass multi-entry contests, I won’t be wasting any lineups on him. Hill is priced well for a fighter with his scoring potential, and he is quite likely to be showing up on winning lineups on Saturday. Santos is not the fighter he was just 3 years ago, and this fight will likely get him another step closer to retirement.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.
Did you know that all content on FantasyCruncher is FREE? You can also find us on TikTok and Twitter! We also offer packages to fit any need or budget for our Industry Leading Optimizer. Stop waiting and start using the tools the pros use.
