Core Plays
Martin Truex – DK: $9,500 | FD: $10,500 – Starting 7th
We hit Michigan and the 2-mile D-shaped oval this weekend in a race that historically favors equipment and a lot of side-by-side racing. Historically, 75% of races won at this track come from starters inside the top 10 so prioritizing the top-10 and not just differential plays seems to be the smarter strategy when looking for the win. Kevin Harvick has actually won this race three of the last four times it has been run with Ryan Blaney taking the win in 2021. This will be the first trip to Michigan however in the next-gen cars. Before hoping into Martin Truex, there are a number of suitors who could have a nod at this top spot. Kyle Larson has a great track record here and a great record on 2-mile tracks in general. Larson won this race 2016 and both the fall and spring race in 2017. Of course, a lot has transpired in those five years, but it is hard to say that Larson’s equipment got any worse in that stretch. Larson has been up and down this year and with the highest price on the slate there is still some risk on him though he will still be someone in my lineups. Kevin Harvick at $8,400 and starting 16th is also likely to be a very popular play with his career numbers here. Martin Truex also has a lot of success here, as he has four top-5 finishes in his last five races in Michigan. Since 2015, Truex has only finished outside the top 12 four times, and has nine top-10 finishes in that stretch. Truex has had an up and down season, but with so many road course races on the schedule, Truex isn’t one to find a ton of success on them. If you shrink Truex’s season and remove road racing, you will likely be looking at a very different set of data. This is not a race I am going all-in on one driver and there is an argument to be made for Elliott, Larson, Busch, Hamlin, Chastain, Truex, Blaney, Logano, and Harvick as serious contenders in this race. I just think Truex may be the dark horse of the group and should come in slightly less owned and at a little more of a discount with equipment that can match the speed of everyone else.
Todd Gilliland – DK: $5,200 | FD: $3,500 – Starting 37th
The love for Todd Gilliland in his pricing continues but that is a win for all DFS players. As mentioned above, I think there are a lot of serious contenders in this race, so targeting multiple dominators is the route I prefer to take. The lower of the salary we can get on our value play the better and if we just aren’t outright punting the position that is even better. The last time Gilliland finished outside the top-25 in a race is all the way back on May 1st. Gilliland is averaging 25.9 fantasy points per race which ranks 25th on the season of all drivers, yet he is priced as the fifth cheapest on the board. More importantly, Gilliland is finishing races and not beating himself. This is great equipment here and the Rookie season Gilliland is putting together is going well under the radar for the quality races he is producing.
Cheat Sheet
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High | Chase Elliott (10.9k / 51.79) (14k / 51.79) |
| Kyle Larson (10.7k / 45.01) (13k / 45.01) | |
| Ross Chastain (10k / 43.09) (12k / 43.09) | |
| Martin Truex (9.5k / 42.01) (10.5k / 42.01) | |
| Ryan Blaney (9.3k / 52.90) (11k / 52.90) | |
| Medium | Joey Logano (8.8k / 37.68) (9.2k / 37.68) |
| Kevin Harvick (8.4k / 48.46) (8.5k / 48.46) | |
| Alex Bowman (8.2k / 45.47) (8.8k / 45.47) | |
| Chris Buescher (7.1k / 26.03) (6.2k / 26.03) | |
| Low | Brad Keselowski (6.9k / 40.75) (7k / 40.75) |
| Ricky Stenhouse (6.7k / 30.03) (7.5k / 30.03) | |
| Austin Hill (6.4k / 49.24) (5.5k / 49.24) | |
| Todd Gilliland (5.2k / 24.81) (3.5k / 24.81) | |
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