Top DFS Plays for UFC 277: Peña vs Nunes (7/30/22)
The UFC returns for more MMA action from American Airlines Center in Dallas. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
BRANDON MORENO (DK $8,900 / FD $20) – Since the beginning of 2019, Moreno has just one loss – a decision loss to the current champ, Deiveson Figueiredo. In fact, his last 3 fights have all been against Figueiredo, and Moreno is 1-1-1 against the champ. That is his only loss in eight trips to the octagon, and one of his victories over that span was a unanimous decision win over his opponent on Saturday, Kai Kara France. Moreno is without question one of the top two fighters in the flyweight division, and he is averaging 86.3 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) over his last 4 fights. Three of those four fights were against the champ. I like Moreno to do much better against France who is a step down in competition from Figueiredo.
(At the time of this writing, Brandon Moreno is -213 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 89.8 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
DON’TALE MAYES (DK $8,500 / FD $20) – Mayes had a rough start to his UFC career with consecutive losses by submission in his first two fights. Since then, he has won 2 straight including a TKO win over Josh Parisian in his last fight. He fights UFC newcomer, Hamdy Abdelwahab, who is fighting in just his sixth professional MMA fight to date. He is 5-0 so far but has never fought anyone on Mayes’ level. He has also never won a fight by submission. Mayes is a slight +125 underdog to get a finish here, and I believe that’s a solid bet. This fight is -185 to finish inside the distance, and all signs point toward this being a brawl. Mayes has a big length advantage in this one. He stands 4 inches taller than Abdelwahab, and he has a whopping 9-inch reach advantage. This fight needs to be used heavily in GPP contests, and I will give Mayes the bulk of that exposure.
(At the time of this writing, Don’Tale Mayes is -187 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 65.65 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
IHOR POTIERIA (DK $8,400 / FD $16) – Potieria opened as a 2-to-1 favorite for this fight, but the betting public has moved the line to the point he is now a minus-money underdog. His opponent, Nicolae Negumereanu, is 3-1 in the UFC with two wins by split decision so far. This will be Potieria’s debut with the UFC, after earning a contract on the Contender Series with a first-round TKO win in September of last year. Potieria has not lost a fight in 5 years and over that span, he has 11 finishes – 5 wins by KO/TKO and 6 wins by submission including submissions by rear-naked choke, heel hook, kimura, and triangle choke. He has a complete game and is ready to step up to the UFC. Potieria has a good chance at an upset and a finish here as a small underdog on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Ihor Potieria is -104 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 55.67 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!
