High Dollar Option
Rogue fell short on Friday against Misfits but still managed 18 kills in the 46-minute back-and-forth match. It was truly anyone’s game as the last 16 or so minutes were constantly filled with 2-for-2 team fight trades that kept extending the game. It wasn’t until Misfits claimed Elder Drake #2 that the Ace came through which led to the win. When Rogue met Astralis back in week 2, Rogue had no issues winning by a 15-6 kill margin. Comp played a starved Senna and the bot lane dominated the likes of Kobbe and JeongHoon. While Astralis sits at 5-7, their wins are two against BDS, Misfits, SK, and XL. The XL win is nice, but the Misfits win was when they were struggling in their 0-4 start. When faced with stiffer competition, Astralis has been relatively non-competitive. Rogue is a -350 favorite here and Rogue has not been a team to shy away from fighting as Comp leads the LEC at 4.92 kills per game. Comp and Larssen also rank 1st and 3rd in kill participation at 78% or higher. The pricing on Malrang remains a bit confusing too as he is the fourth priced JNG on the slate so we get a little extra value.
Value Option(s)
We rode SK as a value option on Friday and they ended up putting up some huge numbers with 18 total kills and a win in 36-minutes. This now puts SK with an average kills of 16 per game over their last five matches. On Saturday, SK takes on Misfits Gaming who open as a small -120 favorite. Despite the -120 odds, Misfits are priced second in MID lane and more towards the middle of all others. SK however has the second cheapest JNG and SUP options on this slate which feel like a bit of a misprice. In a vacuum, I still think Misfits is the better team here but one thing they do a lot of is die. Misfits is averaging the highest deaths per game at 15 and even in their win over Rogue on Friday they still died 18 times. Both of these teams are on a positive trajectory, but the value of SK still grades out as the best on the slate with the huge discounts on Gilius and Treatz.
G2 played another very sloppy game on Friday and Vitality absolutely dominated Excel. Vitality opens as a +150 underdog here and prices them as third lowest at most positions. I have no issue taking shots on Vitality right now as G2 has not looked like themselves recently. Add in a 20% first blood percentage and we have a team who plays from behind a lot. Regardless of behind or not, G2 has the knack for comebacks and dominating late games. We saw that on Friday, but Team BDS held a lead for 20-minutes.
| $ Tier | CPTN | TOP | JNG | MID | ADC | SUP | TEAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Larssen (12k / 42.765) | Odoamne (7k / 21.84) | Elyoya (7.4k / 20.97) | Larssen (8k / 28.51) | Upset (8k / 26.03) | Trymbi (6.4k / 19.84) | Fnatic (5.8k / 18.98) |
| Comp (11.7k / 44.640) | Wunder (6.6k / 18.57) | Razork (7.2k / 22.23) | Comp (7.8k / 29.76) | Kaiser (6.2k / 16.22) | Rogue (5.6k / 17.18) | ||
| Unf0rgiven (11.1k / 30.780) | |||||||
| Medium | Humanoid (10.8k / 34.530) | Armut (6.4k / 16.37) | Malrang (6.8k / 21.76) | Humanoid (7.2k / 23.02) | Unf0rgiven (7.4k / 20.52) | Hylissang (6k / 15.62) | MAD Lions (5k / 16.91) |
| Nisqy (10.5k / 31.260) | Nisqy (7k / 20.84) | ||||||
| Sertuss (6.6k / 17.86) | |||||||
| Low | Carzzy (9.3k / 29.745) | JNX (6k / 16.10) | Gilius (5.6k / 15.89) | Perkz (6.2k / 18.53) | Jezu (6.4k / 18.57) | Treatz (4.6k / 15.83) | SK Gaming (4.6k / 12.83) |
| Sertuss (9.9k / 26.790) | Carzzy (6.2k / 19.83) | ||||||
| Jezu (9.6k / 27.855) | |||||||
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