DraftKings League of Legends Esports DFS Rundown (LEC) – July 29, 2022 – FantasyCruncher.com DFS Articles & Insights – fantasycruncher.com

High Dollar Option

The LEC has been a league of swings with a ton of peaks and valleys for teams over their first 11 matches. We have seen 4 game-win streaks and 3-4 game losing streams by multiple teams. Whether Misfits starting 0-4 and now 5-6, or Fnatic now losers of four straight to be sitting at 5-6. Even the almighty G2 rode out a losing streak and sit at a modest 6-5. However, despite being chalky, G2 still sits as our best option on this slate as they take on 1-10 Team BDS. Not only is BDS on a 7-match losing streak, but they are only averaging 8.1 kills per game and 14.2 deaths per game. That is the basement of the LEC for KPG and second to last for DPG. G2 on the other hand do die a lot at 12.4 per game, but they also have the highest upside slaying potential at 15.5 KPG. G2 is a team with some wild stats – they only claim first blood around 1/4 of the time, but their tower, dragon, herald, and baron percentages all still stand above BDS. The team playing BDS likely gets shoved into this article a lot going forward as really they are the one team who has shown they just can’t really stand up to the competition.

Next Best

Mad Lions open as just a -146 favorite over Fnatic but I am fine building against Fnatic’s current poor stretch while Mad have shown to statistically be the (arguably) best team currently in the LEC. Not only are Mad Lions averaging 14.1 kills per game, they carry just 8.7 deaths per game as well. That is a team K:D of 1.61 – the next closest in the LEC is Excel at 1.42. Fnatic on the other hand is in a four-match losing streak with losses to Misfits, Vitality, Excel, and Rogue. While those four teams aren’t pushovers the real issue here is none of those games were particularly close. They dragged the game out with Rogue to 46 minutes but were out-slayed 18 to 9 and still lost with an 8k gold deficit. Excel annihilated them in 26 minutes with a 14k gold lead and an 18-3 kill advantage. Kaiser and Armut rank 1-2 in the LEC for KDA and Unforgiven sits fifth (Elyoya 10th, Nisqy 15th). Four Mad Lions starters rank in the top 12 for fewest deaths and Unforgiven ranks second for most kills at 4.82 per game. This is a matchup of hot vs cold and for whatever reason Unforgiven is the 4th-priced ADC on the slate. That presents a small edge of value.

Value Option(s)

While it is still a favorite in the matchup, Excel is priced 5th at most positions as they are a -127 favorite over Team Vitality. Vitality comes in priced around 6-8 at each position so there is a pretty wide gap here. I am a big Excel fan and if you read this article you know we rode them early in the year to a lot of success. The build may need to be a 4-2-1, but there are ways to work in Excel with some other favorites on the slate. Excel currently averages the third most KPG and second fewest DPG. Vitality on the other hand sits at 11.1/12.6. These two met back in week two to a pretty competitive game with Excel dominating mid-lane and dragons. Excel leads the LEC in Dragon% at 67%.

When it comes to deeper value, SK Gaming presents our best option as just a +115 underdog. Despite that, SK is priced near the bottom of a few positions and while they did fall to Mad Lions in their last match, they were on a three-match win streak with wins over G2, XL, and BDS in their prior three. Astralis is 5-6 on the year, but they have only one statement win in a win over XL – besides that the rest of their wins have come from beating BDS twice, Misfits once, and this SK team during the beginning of the split. Despite averaging just 9.8 kills per game on the split, SK is averaging over 15 over their last four matches.

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