Fight Study (7/16/22)
The UFC’s featherweight division will be under the spotlight when the division’s 3rd ranked contender, Yair Rodriguez, takes on the division’s 2nd ranked contender, Brian Ortega, for a fight that will certainly determine the next challenger for the featherweight title. Both fighters are looking to rebound from losses, and it is Ortega who is the favorite to do so. He is the more expensive fighter in DFS contests as well. Those looking to roster him may do so for $8,500 on DraftKings and $21 on Fanduel. Rodriguez will be available for $7,700 and $16 respectively. As the evening’s Main Event, this fight is scheduled for 5 rounds of MMA action, however, this fight is a -150 favorite to end before reaching the judges’ scorecards.
Rodriguez has a professional record of 13-3 with 1 no contest decision. Altogether, he has 4 wins by KO/TKO, 3 wins by submission, and 6 wins by decision. Over his last 5 fights, he has struggled with a record of 2-2 with 1 no contest decision over that span. Those losses were quality ones, however, with defeats at the hands of Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar. He did defeat Chan Sung Jung (a.k.a. The Korean Zombie) over that span, and that win is the hallmark of his career to date. If he is able to defeat Ortega, he will have proven that he is worthy of a title fight, but a loss in this fight will be an indicator that he is not a top-tier fighter.
Ortega has a professional record of 15-2 with 1 no contest including 3 wins by KO/TKO, 7 wins by submission, and 5 wins by decision. To date, he has only lost to the last two men to contend for the featherweight title – Max Holloway and current featherweight champ, Alexander Volkanovski. He is known for his submissions, but of late has proven that he is a high-level striker as well with 3 wins by KO/TKO to go with 3 wins by submission and a decision over the aforementioned Chan Sung Jung in his last 7 victories. His striking has grown significantly, and it is a formidable complement to the division’s best grappling game. He is clearly a fighter trying to become a champion.
This fight figures to be a close matchup when upright, however, Ortega’s ground game is vastly superior. This is the true difference in this fight. Rodriguez has not proven that he is on the level of Ortega as far as I can see, and he must prove himself on Saturday to be considered elite in this division. I expect Ortega to assert his ground threat giving himself a potential advantage on his feet as well. If Rodriguez tries to outstrike Ortega, he is likely to provide opportunities for Ortega to change levels where the advantage will belong fully to the BJJ black belt. If he gets too defensive, Ortega will dictate things on their feet as well.
In DFS contests, the disparity in salaries makes Rodriguez playable with limited exposure in multi-entry contests, however, I prefer Ortega here in all formats and on both platforms. I believe he is the much stronger candidate to get a finish in this fight and his GPP value is bolstered by his greater chance at a conclusion bonus. I wouldn’t overlook Rodriguez entirely here, but I believe Ortega is better than the odds indicate and make him one of my favorite plays in DFS contests on Saturday.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.
