High Dollar
Kevin Harvick – DK: $8,800 | FD: $8,200 – Starting 10th
We head to the flat oval of New Hampshire for this 1-mile track on Sunday. While Kevin Harvick hasn’t produced some of the big finishes we have been accustomed to in the past, he has quietly put together a strong and consistent season. In 22 races, Harvick has 12 top-10 finishes but he is averaging 38.2 fantasy points per race. While this number might not seem like a lot, it is actually the fifth most of all drivers this year for fantasy points. Harvick has finished in the top-12 or better in five of his last six races and has scored over 52 fantasy points in three out of his last six. But Harvick at New Hampshire inspires me a bit as this is a track he has always been very strong at. In 2021, Harvick finished sixth while leading 66 laps – in 2020 he finished 5th while leading six laps, and in 2018 and 2019 he won this race. While I prefer to stick to 5-year samples, Harvick also has top-5 finishes here in 2016 (twice) and 2017. The price on Harvick is finally climbing again after a shocking $7,600 last week, but still at $8,800 and this starting spot gives us some room to work with. Harvick has lead at least six laps in each of his last four races in New Hampshire and started 12-7-14-14 in those races so the 10 spot lines us up well here.
Low Dollar
Justin Haley – DK: $5,900 | FD: $4,500 – Starting 25th
There is no secret analysis here, Justin Haley is just a driver who is consistently outproducing his salary. Haley is averaging 29.6 fantasy points on the year, which ranks him 20th among all drivers. Haley is priced as the 28th driver here, so there is value alone here. Haley has provided 4.5x value on his salary in seven of his last ten races and has a sixth place finish in New Hampshire back in the Xfinity Series. I know I am scraping the barrel there for data but Haley has limited time at this track. Over Haley’s last 11 races he has seven top-15 finishes and turned in a strong race at Phoenix earlier this year – another 1-mile flat oval. Harrison Burton is another name that could be interchangeable here as both are priced (to what I feel is) too low on this slate. Rostering a higher floor / low ceiling value play just allows us to target the higher salary guys a bit easier.
Cheat Sheet
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High | Kyle Busch (11k / 75.64) (12.5k / 75.64) |
| Joey Logano (10.8k / 64.23) (13.5k / 64.23) | |
| Ryan Blaney (10k / 56.69) (14k / 56.69) | |
| Ross Chastain (9.8k / 43.05) (11.5k / 43.05) | |
| Medium | Kevin Harvick (8.8k / 54.69) (8.2k / 54.69) |
| Chase Briscoe (8.4k / 50.92) (9.8k / 50.92) | |
| Alex Bowman (7.8k / 43.08) (9k / 43.08) | |
| Erik Jones (7.3k / 33.24) (7k / 33.24) | |
| Low | AJ Allmendinger (7.1k / 24.42) (4k / 24.42) |
| Michael McDowell (6.5k / 19.31) (6.8k / 19.31) | |
| Justin Haley (5.9k / 26.08) (4.5k / 26.08) | |
| Harrison Burton (5.2k / 18.90) (3.5k / 18.90) | |
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