Core Plays
Kyle Busch – DK: $9,900 | FD: $11,000 – Starting 19th
We head back to Atlanta for the second race of the season though we did not get to qualify due to bad weather on Saturday. The first race of the season at Atlanta was a mess with a lot of upfront cautions. While I don’t think this will be the norm, this is a newly remodeled track in Atlanta with higher banking, wider front stretches, and more narrow backstretches. This is a plate race so without the qualifying, we are going to just have to look at the Spring race plus some restrictor-plate stats. The first race at New Atlanta didn’t go well for Busch – but really it didn’t go well for a lot of big names. In Busch’s last three races at old Atlanta Busch has two-second places and one fifth-place finish. Kyle Busch carries the second-best odds to win this race, but starts the furthest back in the grid for anyone with 12-1 odds or better. This raises the overall ceiling for the play as it implies a positive differential on his finishing position. In 21 races on the year, Busch has 13 top-10 finishes with one win. His recent results haven’t been too great, but we have to factor in the road course and superspeedway stretch of the schedule. We are back to intermediate racing here and Busch has been very good at them with a 2nd at Charolette, a third in Kansas. Not to mention a third at Talladega which is the most recent plate race.
Brad Keselowski – DK: $6,500 | FD: $5,800 – Starting 31st
This is a name that has made the article a few times this year but due to his inconsistency, I really try to pick and choose the right spot. With a 31st spot in the starting grid and a track he has had career success at, there is no better time than now. Keselowski’s run at the “new” Atlanta at the end of March ended with a 12th-place finish starting 24th. In 2019 Keselowski won the race, in 2018 he took second, and in 2017 he also won. In 16 career starts at Atlanta, Keselowski has an average overall finish of 15th place and has led at least a lap in eight of them. While things are certainly different here in 2022, this is the cheapest price on Keselowski all year and he still carries an average finish of 18.7.
Cheat Sheet
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High | Ryan Blaney (10.7k / 54.54) (13k / 54.54) |
| Kyle Larson (10.1k / 55.87) (12.5k / 55.87) | |
| Kyle Busch (9.9k / 63.90) (11k / 63.90) | |
| Denny Hamlin (9.7k / 66.12) (12k / 66.12) | |
| William Byron (9.5k / 52.14) (11.5k / 52.14) | |
| Medium | Martin Truex (9.1k / 52.05) (9.5k / 52.05) |
| Bubba Wallace Jr (8.7k / 38.35) (8.8k / 38.35) | |
| Kurt Busch (8.2k / 50.90) (8k / 50.90) | |
| Ricky Stenhouse (7.1k / 23.86) (6k / 23.86) | |
| Chris Buescher (7k / 23.86) (6.8k / 23.86) | |
| Low | Brad Keselowski (6.5k / 45.01) (5.8k / 45.01) |
| Noah Gragson (5.8k / 23.79) (2.5k / 23.79) | |
| Harrison Burton (5.5k / 23.45) (3.5k / 23.45) | |
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