Top DFS Plays for UFC on ESPN 39: Dos Anjos vs Fiziev (7/9/22)
The UFC returns for more MMA action from the Apex in Las Vegas. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
DAVID ONAMA (DK $9,300 / FD $22) – Fighters will do just about anything for a chance to fight in the UFC. Onama stepped up a weight class to fight a gifted Mason Jones with late notice to make his octagon debut. The results were a tough decision loss in which all judges scored the bout 29-28. He now plays the role of the prepared fighter taking on a last-minute newcomer in Garrett Armfield who will fill in for late scratch Austin Lingo. Armfield is a decent fighter, but he is playing out of his league here. Onama has only lost to Jones, and he has 9 wins to go with his lone loss – all inside the distance. Onama stands 4 inches taller and has a 5-inch reach advantage over Armfield. He is capable on his feet and on the ground with 6 wins by KO/TKO and 3 wins by submission. At -140 to score a finish, he is the only fighter on Saturday favored to win inside the distance.
(At the time of this writing, David Onama is -278 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 72.17 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
RONNIE LAWRENCE (DK $8,400 / FD $17) – Lawrence has won 5 straight with two wins by KO/TKO over that span. His last two fights have been inside the octagon where he has averaged 133.17 FPPF (DraftKings scoring). In his debut, he defeated Vince Cachero by third-round TKO scoring 134.87 FP in the process. He does not need to finish opponents to score, however, as he followed up that win with a 131.47 FP performance in his decision win over Mana Martinez. He faces his toughest opponent yet in Saidyokub Kakhramonov, but he is the betting favorite in this one. Lawrence is a favorite priced just above the average on both platforms and has shown the ability to score inside the octagon. Key to that will be his ability to tally takedowns. In his two UFC fights to date he has combined for 14 takedowns. If he can do so against Kakhramonov, his ceiling is very high on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Ronnie Lawrence is -123 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.15 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
CODY BRUNDAGE (DK $7,900 / FD $15) – Brundage is a dangerous submission artist with power in his hands and 6 finishes in 7 wins as a pro. After losing by decision in his UFC debut, he rebounded to score a first-round submission of Dalcha Lungiambula to even up his record with the promotion. His opponent, Tresean Gore, is a developing striker with a 3-1 professional record (his only loss being his UFC debut against Bryan Battle) and he also has two wins as a part of The Ultimate Fighter last year. If this fight stays upright, Gore should have the edge, but if this fight goes to the ground, Brundage will have a decided advantage. Gore is very inexperienced and I like Brundage to find his way to victory by making Gore grapple in this one. Brundage has a real shot at a finish at a below-average salary on both platforms.
(At the time of this writing, Cody Brundage is +121 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 49.68 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!
