While Rogue and G2 opened this slate as massive favorites, it was Rogue as the only one with an easy time on the slate handily defeating Misfits. G2 on the other hand saw themselves losing at the 23-minute mark before winning a team fight and battling back for the lead. After a back and forth it was actually Team BDS who came out on top in the close match. This marks G2 as at least human, though I have a feeling they came into this match under-estimating their opponent a bit. Excel managed to get the win over Team Vitality after two pauses, a Chronobreak, and a full-game scrap. The scrapped game probably worked in the favor of Excel DFS rosters, as they ended up with more kills than they likely would have in game one. In a toss-up game between SK and Astralis, Astralis actually showed some chops and won big in 29-minutes with a 10k gold advantage.
For Saturday we have two large favorites against in Fnatic as -600 favorites over Team BDS and Rogue at -385 over Astralis. Fnatic will likely know not to discount Team BDS here, but I don’t think BDS magically turned it around into giant-killers after one upset. The Astralis/Rogue matchup is a little more intriguing, but Rogue is still the better team. I say it a lot, but in these 1-game matches, they can sometimes be won or lost in the draft. My favorite match on this slate from a fan perspective is Excel against Mad Lions, two teams who I still firmly believe will be in title contention this season. I will be the first to admit, that this is a tough slate. I am still going to ride any team playing Misfits, as their entire starting roster hold the bottom five spots in the LEC for KDA. They have been non-competitive so far this year and while SK Gaming isn’t anything special (they hold the next four worst KDA spots), someone has to win here. Feel free to toss exposure each way, but Misfits have been bad bad. Astralis may be better than perceived here and outside of Rogue’s win over Misfits (which was expected), they haven’t done anything to wow us. Due to the massive discount here Astralis deserves some low-lying ownership. In terms of teams to build around on this slate, G2 and Fnatic are still going to be my highest exposes, while I split exposure slightly to the side of Excel and then fill in some SK.
Cheat Sheet
| $ Tier | CPTN | TOP | JNG | MID | ADC | SUP | TEAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Upset (12k / 38.580) (15.45k / 38.580) | Broken Blade (6.8k / 20.57) (7.9k / 20.57) | Razork (7.2k / 21.04) (8.7k / 21.04) | Larssen (7.8k / 28.46) (10.1k / 28.46) | Upset (8k / 25.72) (10.3k / 25.72) | Trymbi (6.4k / 19.67) (7.2k / 19.67) | Fnatic (5.8k / 18.88) (7.9k / 18.88) |
| Comp (11.7k / 44.625) (13.95k / 44.625) | Odoamne (6.6k / 21.56) (8k / 21.56) | Malrang (6.8k / 22.12) (8.8k / 22.12) | Humanoid (7.6k / 22.37) (9.2k / 22.37) | Comp (7.8k / 29.75) (9.3k / 29.75) | Hylissang (6.2k / 15.20) (7.4k / 15.20) | Rogue (5.6k / 16.98) (7.7k / 16.98) | |
| Flakked (11.1k / 31.290) (15k / 31.290) | |||||||
| Medium | Caps (10.8k / 34.140) (13.95k / 34.140) | Wunder (6.4k / 18.36) (8.2k / 18.36) | Jankos (6.6k / 19.76) (8.9k / 19.76) | Caps (7.2k / 22.76) (9.3k / 22.76) | Flakked (7.4k / 20.86) (10k / 20.86) | Targamas (5.6k / 16.01) (7.1k / 16.01) | G2 Esports (5.2k / 15.72) (7.6k / 15.72) |
| Jezu (10.5k / 25.320) (14.85k / 25.320) | |||||||
| Patrik (10.2k / 29.475) (14.25k / 29.475) | |||||||
| Low | Nukeduck (9.9k / 27.510) (13.5k / 27.510) | Finn (5.6k / 15.00) (7.4k / 15.00) | Markoon (6.2k / 17.05) (8.9k / 17.05) | Nukeduck (6.6k / 18.34) (9k / 18.34) | Patrik (6.8k / 19.65) (9.5k / 19.65) | Mikyx (5.2k / 12.26) (6.6k / 12.26) | Excel Esports (4.4k / 12.24) (7.1k / 12.24) |
