Top DFS Plays for UFC 273: Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie (4/9/22)
The UFC returns for more MMA action from Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
IAN GARRY (DK $9,200 / FD $20) – There are several enticing options at the top of the salary list this week, but Garry is my top choice for a few reasons. First and most importantly, it is his opponent. Darian Weeks started his career at 5-0 in the regional circuits but lost a decision to Bryan Barberena (a UFC veteran with very mixed results) in his UFC debut in December of last year. The fighters priced above Garry include Alexander Volkanovski (vs Chan Sung Jung), Khamzat Chimaev (vs Gilbert Burns), and Petr Yan (vs Aljamain Sterling). I’ll take Weeks as an opponent over Jung, Burns, or Sterling. Additionally, he carries a lower salary than Volkanovski, Chimaev, and Yan. Yet, he is a perfect 8-0 as a professional with a 75% finishing rate with 5 wins by KO/TKO and 1 win by submission to date. In his UFC debut, he scored a first-round KO of Jordan Williams in November of 2021. He scored 109.11 FP in that effort. Only Chimaev has a better average than that amongst all fighters in UFC 273.
(At the time of this writing, Ian Garry is -377 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 77.61 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
MACKENZIE DERN (DK $8,200 / FD $17) – Dern has a tough matchup on her hands against Tecia Torres on Saturday. Torres has improved her boxing and has good wrestling to complement her striking. Still, Dern is the better striker and her grappling is world-class. Dern stands 3 inches taller than Torres, and she has a 2.5-inch reach advantage as well. The small edges will add up and give Dern a decided edge on Saturday. At a price tag just above average on both platforms, she has the best fantasy average of all fighters (77.6 FPPF – DraftKings scoring) of any favorite outside of the top 4 in salary on Saturday. Over her last 5 fights, she is 4-1 with 3 submissions over that span, and she has averaged 94.0 FPPF in those 4 victories. She isn’t a lock to win here, but her upside is big for a fighter at her salary on both platforms.
(At the time of this writing, Mackenzie Dern is -120 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 61.24 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
KAY HANSEN (DK $7,900 / FD $14) – After an impressive debut ending in a submission of Jinh Yu Frey, Hansen has gone on to lose consecutive decisions for a 1-2 record in the UFC. Her stock is at a low right now, but her potential in the UFC still looks bright in my opinion. She relies too much on her submission game, and she will have to improve her striking to be a successful fighter at this level. However, on Saturday she will face Piera Rodriguez who is not known for her grappling. After winning by decision in the Contender Series, Rodriguez will make her UFC debut against one of the better grapplers in the strawweight division. This is why Hansen has better odds to finish than Rodriguez despite being the underdog to win. With the greater octagon experience and the better chances at a finish, Hansen is a (slight) underdog with a high ceiling, and having more experience against UFC-level fighters will also play to her favor.
(At the time of this writing, Kay Hansen is +108 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 57.19 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!
