Fight Study (3/26/22)
The UFC’s heavyweight division sets the scene for Saturday’s Main Event when the division’s 9th ranked contender, Chris Daukaus, faces the division’s 4th ranked contender, Curtis Blaydes, in Columbus. Blaydes will play the role of the significant favorite, and he will also be the more expensive play in DFS contests. Those looking to roster him may do so for $9,200 on Draftkings and $23 on Fanduel. Daukaus is available for $7,000 and $12 respectively. As the Main Event, this fight is scheduled for five rounds of fight action, however, current odds make this contest a -280 favorite to conclude before ever reaching the judges’ scorecards.
Daukaus has a professional record of 12-4 with 11 wins by KO/TKO and 1 win by decision. Since joining the UFC in 2020, he has a record of 4-1 with his first loss with the promotion coming by a first-round KO from Derrick Lewis in late 2021. He had been on a 5 fight win streak prior to that loss and had 4 first-round finishes and 1 second-round finish during that win streak. Unfortunately, Daukaus is not an elite heavyweight and as the competition gets tougher, his chances of winning have dropped dramatically. He was no match for the power of Lewis, and he figures to struggle against the wrestling of Blaydes.
Blaydes has a career record of 15-3 with 10 wins by KO/TKO and 5 wins by decision. He is one of the best wrestlers in the heavyweight division, and his striking has been improving to accompany his high-level grappling. As a professional, he has only lost to current heavyweight champ, Francis Ngannou (twice), and to the aforementioned, Derrick Lewis. He has won 5 of his last 6 fights with 2 finishes over that span. He stands an inch taller than Daukaus, and his reach advantage is at 4 inches for this bout. He also weighed in at 16 lbs. more than Daukaus on Friday. This should allow him to contend well on his feet. If Daukaus is not careful, however, Blaydes will take him to the ground where his edge will be significant.
Daukaus will not be looking to extend this fight, and he should look to make a statement early. On the other hand, Blaydes knows very well that his wrestling skills are far superior to Dauskaus’. Blaydes should be able to keep Daukaus occupied with his striking, and he will eventually shoot for takedowns where he will shine. If this fight were a kickboxing contest, I would make the odds fairly close, but Blaydes’ wrestling will be the difference in this one. I refuse to say that Daukaus doesn’t have a chance, but he will need to land a big punch against a much bigger opponent to do so.
In DFS contests, I prefer Blaydes in all formats and on both platforms. His pricing is rather high, but he does have a chance to bring value to his salary if he can accumulate takedowns for several rounds. Daukaus has a puncher’s chance in this fight, but he will be a fade (outside of mass multi-entry contests where I’ll give him a minimal number of lineups) for me in most DFS contests on Saturday. Overall, I will use this fight sparingly in GPP contests as Blaydes is likely to struggle to bring good value to his price tag and Daukaus is an underdog likely to put up a low score. In cash lineups, I do like Blaydes somewhat for his win probability and the likelihood of putting up a serviceable score.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.
