
Core Plays
Kyle Larson – DK: $10,500 | FD: $10,400 – Starting 21st
Rain in Atlanta has canceled all qualifying for this weekend so we get a metrics-based grid with Larson starting 21st. Now, Atlanta is newly banked and freshly paved, but it is still a 1.5-mile, a track size that Kyle Larson has absolutely dominated over the last two years. Larson finished second at Vegas, 1st at Kansas last year, 1st at Texas, 1st at Charolette, and a 2nd at Atlanta last season. In that race last year at Atlanta, Larson led 269 laps and had 104 of the fastest. While starting 21st will limit the amount of laps led, it gives us differential opportunity. Again, Atlanta is a different track this year so historical data isn’t entirely relevant, but getting an elite driver at this starting spot gives us the highest potential ceiling.
Noah Gragson – DK: $5,800 | FD: $3,500 – Starting 30th
If you also read my Xfinity article, you would know Gragson is my preferred play in that race as well. I am writing and publishing this article before the Xfinity race is run, but Gragson still falls in a great spot in this race with a 30th starting spot. Gragson is on-fire in the Xfinity Series with a top-three finish in his last four races. This will be Gragson’s first Cup race of the year, but he will be in good equipment and have the experience of the new Atlanta track by running Xfinity the day before. There is some risk here, but a 30th starting spot and this low of a price negate that for me.
Cheat Sheet
$ Tier | D |
---|---|
High | Ryan Blaney (10.7k / 42.22) (13.5k / 42.22) |
Kyle Larson (10.5k / 62.02) (14k / 62.02) | |
Denny Hamlin (10.1k / 54.49) (12k / 54.49) | |
Martin Truex (9.2k / 61.22) (10k / 61.22) | |
Medium | Brad Keselowski (8.6k / 46.49) (7.5k / 46.49) |
Austin Cindric (7.8k / 39.74) (9k / 39.74) | |
Christopher Bell (7.7k / 39.92) (8k / 39.92) | |
Bubba Wallace Jr (7.3k / 27.45) (8.5k / 27.45) | |
Low | Michael McDowell (6.6k / 24.07) (5k / 24.07) |
Harrison Burton (6.4k / 30.55) (4k / 30.55) | |
Noah Gragson (5.8k / 39.36) (3.5k / 39.36) | |
Todd Gilliland (5.6k / 28.87) (3.5k / 28.87) |