
Core Plays
Brad Keselowski – DK: $8,600 | FD: $9,000 – Starting 9th
Keselowski has always been a driver who has found more success on longer tracks and we get that again this week with the 2-mile at the Auto Club. Kes had a strong start to his season last week with a ninth place finish – which may appear disappointing in a vacuum, but at Daytona leading 67 laps and finishing top-ten is no easy feat. This is also a track that Keselowski has succeeded at in the past as in the six races he has run here since 2015 he has six straight top-ten finishes, as well as five of them being top-five finishes. In his last two races here, Keselowski grades out as the second-best driver at this track with an average finish of fourth and 42 laps led here back in 2019. The price isn’t too high and the starting position gives us wiggle room here.
Bonus notes: Kevin Harvick is starting 32nd but in a back-up car. Kurt Busch is starting 36th after multiple failed inspections and has to complete a pass-through as does Bubba Wallace.
Bubba Wallace – DK: $7,000 | FD: $6,000 – Starting 34th
Bubba Wallace was one of several to fail the pre-race inspection and not be allowed to qualify here – the others include Justin Haley, Kevin Harvick, Ross Chastain, and Kurt Busch. These drivers will start in the back of the field and be forced to complete a pass-through so we can expect Wallace to be a lap down at the start of this race. However, this is still a 200 lap race at a very fast track. Wallace’s price here makes the risk worth it and by conventional wisdom, Wallace will see himself back on the lead lap likely sooner than later in this one. Wallace also gave us a great performance last week at Daytona, finishing second to Austin Cindric. In races with fewer laps, we are going to focus heavier on place differential, and starting 34th in a 36 car field is about as good as we can get here.
Cheat Sheet
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High | Kyle Larson (11.4k / 49.75) (14k / 49.75) |
| Chase Elliott (11.1k / 43.75) (13.5k / 43.75) | |
| Denny Hamlin (10.1k / 43.57) (12.5k / 43.57) | |
| Joey Logano (8.3k / 39.94) (10.5k / 39.94) | |
| Medium | Kevin Harvick (10.6k / 56.07) (9.7k / 56.07) |
| Kurt Busch (9.9k / 49.30) (9.2k / 49.30) | |
| Brad Keselowski (8.1k / 42.74) (9k / 42.74) | |
| Christopher Bell (7.2k / 36.19) (8.5k / 36.19) | |
| Aric Almirola (9.7k / 42.34) (6.5k / 42.34) | |
| Low | Bubba Wallace Jr (7.7k / 34.27) (6k / 34.27) |
| Harrison Burton (6.3k / 35.16) (5.8k / 35.16) | |
| Cole Custer (5.4k / 23.23) (4k / 23.23) | |