Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 202: Makhachev (2/26/22)
The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the Apex Facility. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
JOSIANE NUNES (DK $8,900 / FD $21) – Nunes is undefeated since November of 2013, winning 7 straight coming into Saturday’s fight with Ramona Pascual. Her overall professional record stands at 8-1 with 7 of those wins coming by way of KO/TKO. To date, she has 3 first-round finishes and 4 second-round finishes. Pascual will be making her UFC debut against Nunes. This is a very tough draw for her first foray into the octagon, and current odds make Nunes a favorite to get a finish inside the distance. Although there are fighters with better odds than Nunes, at her price she brings loads of value for DFS contests with her high ceiling.
(At the time of this writing, Josiane Nunes is -278 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 71.07 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
GREGORY RODRIGUES (DK $8,500 / FD $18) – Since starting his career with 2 losses in his first 3 fights, Rodrigues has gone on to win 10 of his last 11, including a 4 fight win streak coming into Saturday’s fight with Armen Petrosyan. Petrosyan is making his UFC debut after earning a contract via the Contender Series. Petrosyan is a dangerous opponent, but as long as Rodrigues fights his fight, this should be a relatively easy one for him. Current odds make Rodrigues a slight +105 dog to get a finish in this fight. In his last fight, Rodriguez finished Jun Yong Park by second-round TKO, and he scored 119.6 FP (DraftKings scoring) in the process. I suspect a similar stat line for this fight as well.
(At the time of this writing, Gregory Rodrigues is -157 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 61.58 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
TERRANCE MCKINNEY (DK $7,800 / FD $15) – McKinney is a narrow dog in this fight, which the oddsmakers have determined to have the closest odds of all fights on Saturday. At +175 to win inside the distance, he has better odds for a finish than his opponent, Fares Ziam. McKinney made his UFC debut in June of last year, and in that fight, he took all of 7 seconds to finish Matt Frevola by KO. In fact, McKinney has won 4 straight, with each victory coming in the first round. Three of those fights took under 20 seconds to conclude with the fourth fight taking 72 seconds to reach a finish. McKinney is a boom or bust play, with all but two of his fights finishing in the first round, including 10 first-round victories for McKinney and 2 first-round losses. McKinney’s ceiling is very high every time he fights, and as a small underdog, the sky is the limit on Saturday for McKinney.
(At the time of this writing, Terrance McKinney is +102 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.27 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!
