Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 201: Walker vs Hill (2/19/22)
The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the Apex Facility. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
CHAS SKELLY (DK $8,700 / FD $19) – Skelly has a UFC record of 7-3 with 1 no-contest decision. His opponent, Mark Striegl, is 0-1 and has spent a grand total of 51 seconds (he lost by first-round KO in his UFC debut last October) inside the octagon to this point. Current odds make Skelly a 2 to 1 favorite, and he is a slight +120 dog to get a finish inside the distance on Saturday. Skelly has the 6th best average (DraftKings scoring) of all fighters on Saturday at 69.7 FPPF. Skelly has 10 career wins by submission. Striegl has 14 career submissions, but the oddsmakers prefer Skelly’s ground game as he is +165 to win by submission compared to Striegl at +550. Skelly is much better on his feet, however, with 3 wins by KO/TKO compared to Striegl with 0 wins by KO/TKO. Additionally, Skelly has a 3-inch height advantage and a 2-inch reach advantage in this fight. Look for Skelly to keep this fight upright unless he has the decided advantage going to the ground where he will be a threat to finish with his strong submission game.
(At the time of this writing, Chas Skelly is -207 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 67.30 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
DAVID ONAMA (DK $8,400 / FD $17) – Onama took his first career loss to Mason Jones in October of last year. Up to that decision loss, he had finished all 8 of his opponents with 5 wins by KO/TKO and 3 wins by submission. His opponent, Gabriel Benitez, has had a good career, but since the beginning of 2019, he has just 1 win in 4 trips to the octagon. At the UFC’s Apex Facility, Onama will be able to take advantage of the smaller cage and Benitez is in a lot of danger to get finished. That’s why Onama is currently even money to finish this fight inside the distance. At a salary just above average on both platforms, Onama is a great value with a big upside on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, David Onama is -173 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 64.52 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
JIM MILLER (DK $7,700 / FD $13) – Miller is always a boom or bust play every time he finds his way into a DFS contest. Over his last 10 fights, he is 5-5. All 5 of those wins were finishes with 4 wins by submission and a win by second-round KO in his most recent fight. In victory during that span, he is averaging 104.2 FPPF (DraftKings scoring). He faces Nikola Motta on Saturday as the underdog. Over his last 10 fights, he has 2 wins as an underdog. Most importantly, Miller has a clear path to victory. He has 18 career submissions. Meanwhile, his opponent has never won by submission in his career. However, Motta has lost by submission despite only having 3 career losses to date. If Miller can take this fight to the ground, his chances at an upset and a good fantasy score are excellent.
(At the time of this writing, Jim Miller is +146 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 47.73 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!
