Fight Study (2/12/22)
The top-ranked middleweight contender, Robert Whittaker, will take to the octagon with the reigning champ, Israel Adesanya, from the Toyota Center in Houston on Saturday as the Main Event of UFC 271. Both middleweights are coming off of victories, and Adesanya (who won the first iteration of this fight in 2019) will be the heavy favorite in the re-match. He will also be the more expensive DFS play. Adesanya can be rostered for $9,200 on DraftKings and $23 on Fanduel. Whittaker is priced much less and will carry the price tags of $7,000 and $16 respectively. As the Main Event, this fight has been scheduled for five rounds of MMA action, and currently, this fight is a slight -120 favorite to go the full 25 minutes inside the octagon.
Whittaker is a former champion with a career record of 23-5 with 9 wins by KO/TKO, 5 wins by submission, and 9 wins by decision. He was won 3 straight going into this re-match, and since mid-2014 has only lost once inside the octagon. That loss was to Adesanya and after that second-round KO, the belt transferred to Adesanya where it has remained since. Whittaker has been dominant as a middleweight since moving up in weight after fighting his first 5 UFC fights as a welterweight. He brings excellent striking and top-level technique with a solid ground game into the octagon. He has a wealth of experience in 5-round fights, having gone into the championship rounds on 4 occasions over his last 6 fights. If not for one man, he would be one of the most dominant fighters in all of the UFC.
That man is Israel Adesanya. Adesanya is 21-1 overall with his only loss coming when he moved up to light heavyweight to contend for the belt in that division and lost to former champ, Jan Blachowicz, in March of last year. As a middleweight, he is undefeated and had won 20 straight before his loss at light heavyweight. In nearly every aspect of his game, he is superior to all other fighters in the division. He is quicker, more skilled, and much longer than Whittaker. He possesses a 4-inch height advantage over the Kiwi as well as a significant 6.5-inch reach advantage. His takedown defense is very high level, and only a much bigger Blachowicz has been able to penetrate Adesanya’s distance with any effectiveness.
Adesanya’s combination of speed and length will make this fight a nearly impossible one for Whittaker. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Whittaker has no chance here, but the current odds don’t accurately convey just how large Adesanya’s edge will be on Saturday. Look for him to repeatedly find a home for his jab, and to keep Whittaker at a safe distance throughout this fight. Whittaker will likely find himself searching for takedowns (where the champ’s length will not give him an edge), but Adesanya is very good at keeping fights upright when he is determined to do so. If this fight remains on their feet, Whittaker’s chances are very slim.
For both platforms and in all formats, I am taking Adesanya here. In mass multi-entry, I would give Whittaker a limited number of lineups, but make his chances to be very narrow here. Adesanya’s price tag is the most limiting factor here, and I can’t guarantee a big score by the champ. I expect that he will fight this one cautiously, and wouldn’t expect another finish in the re-match. Use Adesanya with discretion as his cost may be too high to allow him to bring much value. Still, he is worth some exposure and he has the potential to finish with a high score any time he fights. I would consider fading Whittaker entirely here, but won’t go so far as to say this fight is already decided. Still, the metrics on this one point very clearly to another successful title defense for the champ.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.
