Top DFS Plays for UFC 270: Ngannou vs Gane (1/22/22)
The UFC returns in 2022 for more MMA action from Anaheim. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
MICHEL PEREIRA (DK $9,100 / FD $21) – Since joining the UFC, Pereira is 4-2 with one of those losses coming via disqualification. He has won 3 straight and has finishes in half of his wins inside the octagon. Most recently, he defeated Niko Price by unanimous decision scoring 91.41 FP (DraftKings scoring) in the process. Saturday he faces Andre Fialho who will be making his UFC debut. Although this will be Fialho’s 19th professional fight, he has not fought against an opponent of Pereira’s abilities. Pereira is +110 to finish this fight inside the distance and I for one believe this is a bet worth taking. Pereira is a great way to begin your lineups in DFS contests this weekend.
(At the time of this writing, Michel Pereira is -281 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 73.87 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
SAID NURMAGOMEDOV (DK $8,600 / FD $17) – Nurmagomedov is 14-2 over his career and has just one loss since joining the UFC. His striking is dominant and his wrestling will keep his opponent, Cody Stamann, from being able to be effective. Stamann has just 2 wins over his last 6 fights. Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov is 3-1 inside the octagon with 2 first-round finishes over his last 3 fights. Stamann is tough and I do not expect an early finish to this one, but the possibility is there. Look for Nurmagomedov to out-point Stamann over three rounds. I predict a decision win for Nurmagomedov, but recognize his potential for a finish as his striking will be enhanced by a 2-inch height advantage as well as a hefty 5.5-inch reach advantage.
(At the time of this writing, Said Nurmagomedov is -194 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 65.89 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
FRANCIS NGANNOU (DK $7,800 / FD $17) – I usually don’t use Main Event fighters in this article, but Ngannou’s value as an underdog is too undeniable to use anyone else as my underdog selection. He is the reigning heavyweight champion after defeating Stipe Miocic by second-round TKO in March of last year. As an underdog in the UFC, Ngannou is 2-0 with upsets over both Cain Velasquez and Curtis Blaydes. He is on a 5 fight win streak, with 4 first-round finishes and 1 second-round finish over that span. He also has 3 finishes inside of the first minute during his current win streak. His value on DraftKings is off the charts where he has a very good chance at a Quick Win Bonus. He faces Ciryl Gane, who is not an easy out, but Ngannou’s ceiling at his salary is too high to ignore. Gane has not faced a fighter with Ngannou’s power, and a violent finish to this fight is quite likely as this fight is a -280 favorite to end inside the distance.
(At the time of this writing, Francis Ngannou is +121 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 61.84 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!
