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Novak Djokovic: $10,800 (vs. Nishikori)
Writing this article tonight pained me when I had to re-read my write-up for Osaka as she lost in an upset on Friday. I don’t disagree with anything that was said, it was more just one of those “I really felt it was a lock” moments that humble us as sports/fantasy content writers. So is taking Djokovic in this article the safe way out? Possibly, but the salary on Joker here isn’t that high for a match he is a -3000 favorite in and against an opponent he has a 17-2 H2H record against. The two wins that Nishikori grabbed from Djokovic were both in 2014 or prior, otherwise, the victories against Nishikori have just become quicker and quicker as time has gone on. The most recent matchup here was the Olympics, where Joker won 6-2, 6-0. Djokovic has won in straight sets on hard courts in nine of the last ten times these two have met so while the price is high, a three-set win seems quite plausible.
Emma Raducanu: $7,100 (vs. Sorribes Tormo)
The 18-year-old Raducanu is in great form as she has now won five straight matches including qualifiers to get to the third round of the US Open. In the main draw, she has breezed through Voegele and Zhang, sweeping both matches and now just losing 11 total main draw matches at the Open. Sorribes Tormo’s form is just as good right now, also winning both of her matches here in 2-0 fashion. Tormo has been hot in North America, making it to the quarters at the Canadian Open and then the Semis in Cleveland. Tormo is 24-8 on hard courts in total, though Raducanu is 13-3 in her own regard. Raducanu is a +100 underdog here, so the odds are pretty tight. Oddsmakers are clearly working in Raducanu’s run here to the betting line because at face value Tormo would likely be a slightly larger favorite. With a $1,000 gap in salary, this feels like a match that could go either way. If I believe it is a toss-up, then saving the $1,000 in salary is almost always going to be the play. We have to remember, we are into the third round here, so we are going to have talent all around us.
Cheat Sheet
| $ Tier | P |
|---|---|
| High | Novak Djokovic (10.8k / 84.57) |
| Ashleigh Barty (10.5k / 78.61) | |
| Karolina Pliskova (9.4k / 68.01) | |
| Reilly Opelka (9.1k / 66.37) | |
| Medium | Jannik Sinner (8.3k / 60.43) |
| Belinda Bencic (8k / 49.00) | |
| Jenson Brooksby (7.6k / 50.76) | |
| Low | Emma Raducanu (6.9k / 47.77) |
| Lloyd Harris (6.4k / 38.24) | |
| Ilya Ivashka (6.2k / 38.01) | |