Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
This article will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB or want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season, where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. Stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB. Therefore we will be approaching our hitter’s content from a stacking perspective.
Astros (at Rangers)
The Astros will face Kolby Allard and the Rangers on Saturday and Allard has been able to go six or more innings now in four straight starts. in fact, Allard’s WHIP is just 1.19 on the year to go along with an ERA of 4.86. The low WHIP number comes from a low walk count for Allard and while the lefty has been better than the replacement level this year, there is one specific thing I am chasing in this matchup: home runs. Allard has allowed eight long balls over his last five starts and six over his last 18 innings pitched. Allard has also allowed 34 earned runs over his last 47 innings pitched. Simply put though, if you are rostering a stack against Allard, you are rostering them on the hopes of multiple balls leaving the yard. The Astros rank ninth in the Majors for home runs with Gurriel, Brantley, and Tucker already having a career home run against him. Thought, aside from the homer narrative, Allard has been worse than his WHIP would apply on the year. Yes, he ranks in the top 8% of the league in BB%, but he sits in the bottom 11% for Barrel%, bottom 25% for Exit Velocity, and then the bottom 10-12% for fastball velocity, chase rate, Whiff%, and curve spin. Essentially to break down Allard, his fastball isn’t fast and his curveball doesn’t curve. Allard will succeed mostly with the mixture of his 4-seamer and cutter, though they are still being hit at a cumulative .250ish batting average. Righties are going to be the target here for us, as they are hitting about .45 points higher than lefties.
Mets (vs. Nationals)
While I usually type a lot and break these matchups down pretty deeply, when talking about a team facing Sean Nolin I don’t have much to really say. Nolin carries a 9.00 ERA and a WHIP of 2.43 through two starts this year – covering only seven innings though for fairness. In those seven innings, Nolin has allowed 14 hits, seven earned runs, and two homers. This is the first taste of the bigs for Nolin since all the way back in 2015 when he make six starts for the Athletics. Those six starters didn’t go great, as he allowed 35 hits and 17 earned runs in just 29 innings. Nolin has played just about everywhere, from overseas in Japan, to Independent ball, to every level of the minor leagues. While Nolin has been okay in AAA this year, his 3.80 ERA still isn’t too impressive when it hasn’t translated to the majors. Nolin has thrown his 4-seamer 47% of the time so far, though it only touches 90MPH and is being hit at a .538 batting average and .769 slugging. Now, I know, these are small 2021 samples, but nothing tells me this guy is above replacement level in the Majors and he is simply filling innings for a team that sold at the deadline. Nolin probably doesn’t go too far here, but the Nats bullpen carries a 4.72 ERA so tapping into that is just fine as well.
