Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
If you’ve been reading this column since the start of the year, you’ll know that we’re a big proponent of sticking to the core principles that came out of a deep analysis of 2020 data. Don’t be afraid to pay up for pitching (both sites), and spending around $15,000 to $18,000 is often the optimal range in that department (DK).
It’s a fairly small slate here on Monday, with only 6 games on the docket.
There’s a decent spread of options from a salary perspective, so let’s touch on one from each tier to give us something different to consider based on our spending strategies.
The Jays are struggling, and Lynn’s in fine form
At the top of the slate on FanDuel (and just $100 below the top spot on DraftKings) comes Lance Lynn. The Blue Jays are struggling to hit the ball right now, scoring just a handful of runs against a poor Detroit Tigers staff over the weekend. And, when we look at BvP data as well, we can see that Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.and even Teoscar Hernandez have all struggled to do much damage against Lynn in their careers. Lynn leads the slate over the last month with a 3.61 SIERA and 11.1 K/9, and despite this being a matchup on paper where TOR tends to thrive (.344 wOBA and 21% K% vs RHP), I’m pretty confident that he’s going to turn in a quality outing.
A limited ceiling, but pretty high floor
Looking down the slate a bit more, we have Zack Greinke against the Royals. This is the best Vegas matchup on the board with a 3.5 opponent run total and 70% win probability. It’s also the opponent he most recently faced when going 6 strong innings and allowing one earned run on 5 hits. Greinke rarely gets rocked and his a high probability of turning in a quality start. However, the strikeouts are almost entirely eroded (zero last time out against KC) and the 5.6 K/9 over his last 5 starts only further illustrates that point. The price is a bit higher than I’d like it to be for a guy with lower-end strikeout rates right now, but on a limited slate I don’t mind him at all given the win probability is nice and high.
A bit of a gamble for a lefty on a roll
Lastly and perhaps most polarizing on the slate, is Marco Gonzales. The As have very strong track records against him, with a .342 wOBA and .197 ISO over their last 3 season’s worth of at bats (183). Matt Olson has 4 HR in 33 AB against Gonzales, while Matt Chapman has a .497 wOBA and .300 ISO in 30 AB as well. That’s the main concern for me here, but what I do like is that he’s been lights out over his last 6 starts. In that time, he hasn’t gone less than 5 IP and hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER (just twice; the four other starts with 1 ER or less). A 5-6 IP and 1-2 ER kind of outing is within reach at a very nice salary.
One potential DK SP2 value
Antonio Senzatela isn’t sexy by any means. But neither is the Chicago Cubs offense right now. For what it’s worth, his 3.72 FIP this year is the best of his career, and he’s lowered his BB/9 rate to 1.93 on the year (also a career best). And with his ability to keep the ball in the park with a 52% ground ball rate on the year, Senzatela could be an appealing source for 8-10 DraftKings points at a $6,000 salary.
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!
