Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
If you’ve been reading this column since the start of the year, you’ll know that we’re a big proponent of sticking to the core principles that came out of a deep analysis of 2020 data. Don’t be afraid to pay up for pitching (both sites), and spending around $15,000 to $18,000 is often the optimal range in that department (DK).
Phillies and Blue Jays new toys in great spots
The Phillies and Blue Jays both made trades to upgrade their pitching at the trade deadline and I like both of their new pitchers today. For the Phillies that new pitcher is Kyle Gibson. I especially like Gibson on DraftKings where he is only $6,900 in salary compared to FanDuel where he is $9,000 in salary. I like Gibson today not only for his salary but for the way he has pitched as well as his match-up against the Pirates. Gibson had 19 starts for the Rangers. In those starts, he had an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.18. Gibson pitched at least six innings in 14 of those starts with 13 of those games being quality starts. The only big drawback to Gibson’s season-long numbers is his K rate of just 20.4% but those numbers have been a lot better as of late as Gibson does have at least seven Ks in three of his past five starts. The Pirates as you should know are also a great match-up for pitchers especially right-handed pitchers. This season the Pirates have the fifth-lowest team OPS and lowest team ISO against right-handed pitching.
The Jays new shiny toy is Jose Berrios ($8,600 DK, $9,000 FD) who I was actually shocked got traded. Berrios fits the Jays timeline perfectly as they have club control of him for a couple of seasons. When it comes today I like Berrios not so much based on the way he is pitching as Berrios has allowed at least four runs in two of his past three starts but rather how deep into games he is pitching. I always look for a pitcher that has a chance to pick up a quality start on FanDuel which would require them to pitch at least six innings and that is a lock for Berrios these days. Berrios has pitched at least six innings in four straight starts and in nine of his past ten starts. Berrios is not only pitching deep into games but he is also getting strikeouts right now as he has at least eight Ks in three of his past four starts and in five of his past eight starts. The match-up with the Royals also is in Berrios’s favor today. This season the Royals rank in the bottom six in team ISO, team OPS, and team wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Two cheap lefties worth a look
Marco Gonzales ($6,500 DK, $7,000 FD) is not a pitcher that I normally roster as he is not a good pitcher but at his salary, he is worth a look on this slate as he has not been half bad as of late. Gonzales has allowed three runs or less in five of his past six starts and has pitched at least five innings in each of those starts. Gonzales has double-digit DraftKings points in three of those games. Another reason why I feel Gonzales is worth a look today is his match-up with the Rangers. The Rangers especially with Joey Gallo gone are a team to pick on with pitchers especially left-handed pitchers. The Rangers flat out suck against lefties and this season they rank in the bottom two in team ISO, team OPS, and team wOBA against lefties.
The other cheap left-handed pitcher I am looking at on this slate is Jordan Montgomery ($7,400 DK, $8,000 FD). Montgomery has been really solid this season with a FIP of 3.56, a WHIP of 1.19, and a K rate of 24.3%. Those numbers have picked up even more since the break as Montgomery has increased his K rate to 26.2% and lowered his WHIP to 1.13 while not allowing a single run in his two starts since the break. Montgomery has at least 20 DraftKings points in each of those starts and has hit that mark in three of his past four starts. With the Marlins having the third-lowest team ISO, team wOBA, and team OPS against left-handed pitching while having the highest team K rate at 28.1% there is no reason to believe that Montgomery doesn’t have another great start in this one.
Other Pitchers to look at
I am not going to go into detail on these guys but some other pitchers that I am going to have in my player pool on this slate are as follows
- Adbert Alzolay ($9,200 DK, $7,500 FD) especially like on FanDuel
- Marcus Stroman ($9,700 DK, $9,300 FD)
- Charlie Morton ($10,200 DK, $8,800 FD) especially like on FanDuel
- Adam Wainwright ($9,600 DK, $9,700 FD)
- Michael Pineda ($7,200 DK, $7,300 FD)
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!
