Top DFS Plays for UFC on ESPN 27: Sandhagen vs Dillashaw (7/24/21)
The UFC returns to their Apex Facility in Las Vegas for more MMA action. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
KYLER PHILLIPS (DK $9,200 / FD $22) – Phillips is a bit pricey but he is in a great position to dominate on Saturday. He is on a 4 fight win streak and his opponent, Raulian Paiva, is just 2-2 over his 4 fight career in the UFC. He is the second biggest favorite of all fighters in this event and he is averaging 87.3 FPPF. Most recently he won by unanimous decision in March of this year ending Song Yadong’s 9 fight unbeaten streak. He will be looking for his second finish in the UFC in this his fourth fight. Most notably, this will be Paiva’s first UFC fight in the bantamweight division after fighting his first 4 in the flyweight division. Paiva is undersized in this fight and will give up 2.5 inches in reach to Phillips. Look for Phillips to make the best of both his skill advantage and his size advantage in this one.
(At the time of this writing, Kyler Phillips is -275 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 71.52 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value.
PUNAHELE SORIANO (DK $8,200 / FD $15) – Outside of a 3-round unanimous decision win over Jamie Pickett in the Contender Series, Soriano has 7 first round finishes in his remaining 7 professional fights bringing his overall career record to 8-0 with 5 wins by KO/TKO, 2 wins by submission and 1 win by decision. He is 2-0 in the UFC with first round KO/TKO wins over Oskar Piechota and Dusko Todorovic. He faces his toughest challenge yet in Brendan Allen on Saturday. Soriano is the favorite in this matchup, however, and with an average of 125.6 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) in the UFC he has the highest average of any fighter for this event. At +125 to win inside the distance, his odds at getting a finish are good. With salaries near the middle of the pack on both platforms, he is a top value with great scoring potential.
(At the time of this writing, Punahele Soriano is -118 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.40 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
MAYCEE BARBER (DK $7,800 / FD $12) – Barber’s stock is down after consecutive decision losses to Roxanne Modafferi and Alexa Grasso, but these are losses to quality opponents. She is now 3-2 in the UFC after starting her career with the promotion with wins over Hannah Cifers, J. J. Aldrich and Gillian Robertson. Clearly she is capable of defeating quality opponents, but at the age of 23 she is still learning the ropes. Her opponent, Miranda Maverick, is just 24 herself and is also trying to make her bones in the UFC. Maverick will be put to the test against Barber who has more experience at the elite levels of MMA. This fight is very close, but I will give the edge to Barber and like her to upset Maverick on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Maycee Barber is +117 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 54.05 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!
