Fight Study (7/17/21)
The lightweight division will be featured in Saturday’s Main Event when the 14th ranked contender, Thiago Moises, takes the octagon with the 9th ranked contender, Islam Makhachev, from the UFC’s Apex in Las Vegas. Makhachev is the prohibitive favorite in this matchup and he will carry the much higher salaries in DFS contests. He is available for $9,400 on DraftKings and $23 on Fanduel. Moises carries a much lower price tag and can be rostered for $6,800 and $15 respectively. As the Main Event this fight is scheduled for 5 rounds of fight action, and this fight is a narrow favorite to go the distance at -125 to go to a decision.
Moises has a career record of 15-4 with 3 wins by KO/TKO, 6 wins by submission and 6 wins by decision. He is on a 3 fight win streak and most recently won a unanimous decision over Alexander Hernandez in February of this year. His last lost was to Damir Ismagulov, a Russian fighter with strong wrestling who has a game similar to that of Makhachev. Moises will be the biggest underdog of all fighters on Saturday. In the UFC, Moises has gone 4-2 with 3 decision wins and one win by submission inside the octagon.
Makhachev comes from the same school as former champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and was once called the heir apparent to Khabib according to Nurmagomedov’s father and coach, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov. He brings that same Dagestani style to the octagon and with a record of 19-1 as a professional, it is clear why Abdulmanap projected his greatness. In his 19 career victories, he has 3 wins by KO/TKO, 8 wins by submission and 8 wins by decision. His smothering wrestling figures to play a large role if he is to be successful again on Saturday.
If the oddsmakers are to be trusted, this fight is likely to be rather one-sided with Makhachev being a heavy favorite in this one. I see no reason to disagree with this and anticipate he will have control of this fight throughout the contest. Much like Khabib, Makhachev has such dominant wrestling that even quality opponents like Moises struggle to find their game against him. A submission specialist like Moises requires the ability to grapple with a positional advantage, but Makhachev is not going to give him that. Look for Makhachev to bring this fight to the ground with full control, and don’t expect Moises to have any legitimate submission attempts on Saturday.
Makhachev is a solid cash play as he is a heavy favorite to win this fight. However, at his salary (he carries the highest salary of all fighters on both DraftKings and Fanduel) he will struggle to bring value to his price tag. This makes him a questionable play in GPP contests. For this reason, I suggest limited exposure for him on Saturday. I would prefer spending down on Rodrigo Nascimento or Daniel Rodriguez who carry lower salaries but have higher ceilings. Still, a minimal use of him is reasonable as he has the potential to get a big score if he can finish this fight quickly. I would consider fading Moises entirely, but in 150-max contests a few lineups can be given to him at his bargain salary.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.
