DraftKings Tennis DFS Core Plays & Cheat Sheet – July 12, 2021 (7/12/21) – FantasyCruncher.com DFS Articles & Insights – fantasycruncher.com

FantasyCruncher’s Tennis Optimizer is now live – you can check out package options here.

Fiona Ferro: $9,600 (vs. Tan)

While Fiona Ferro isn’t having the best 2021 campaign, this is a tournament that she won back in 2019. Ferro’s best surface is clay by a long shot and that is what we get here at Lausanne. Ferro carries a 200 point Elo advantage over her opponent Harmony Tan on clay and also carries a 2-0 head-to-head advantage on her during their careers (though they haven’t met since 2015 as juniors). While Ferro’s form has been poor recently, winning just one match over her last five, she also has ran into some quality talent in Brady, Mladenovic, and Muguruza. Tan did secure one win at the French Open over Cornet but fell to Vondrosova in straight sets while only winning four games. Prior to that at Strabourgh, Rus retired for undisclosed reasons, leading some to question her current conditioning. In the end, we have Ferro as a -245 betting favorite with a large Elo advantage on the surface, though for fairness, Tan’s recent win at the French Open graded out as her peak Elo match. I just think there is still too much variance around Harmony Tan and despite Ferro struggling recently, this is a tournament she has won before which should spark a lot of confidence for her. Both of these players are still incredibly young at just 23 and 24 years old, but Ferro has certainly accelerated her career quicker with a ranking of 51st compared to Tan’s of 135.

Steve Johnson: $7,200 (vs. Kudla)

Steve Johnson opens here against Dennis Kudla as just a +110 underdog, though he is priced a full $1,000 less than Kudla here. These two project out pretty well in a head-to-head on grass, as both of them carry very similar grass Elo’s. Kudla grabbed two wins at Wimbledon defeating Fokina and Seppi, before falling to Djokovic in straight sets. Johnson also had a good showing at Wimbledon, sweeping Novak in straight sets and then losing to Taylor Fritz in a five-set marathon. These two have met six times total in their careers, though five of those six came in 2014 or sooner, so while Steve Johnson does carry a 5-1 head-to-head advantage here, it can’t really be used for much as the matches were a while ago and non of them were on grass. The form for these two has been pretty similar, with a slight edge to Johnson as he won a few matches at the French Open, while Kulda was shut down in the qualifiers and never made it to the main draw. The edge here on the surface does go to Kudla, as he just has more experience on it during this season. His Wimbledon run included three wins through qualifiers to even get to his first-round matchup. That being said, Johnson looked as competitive on the surface in his Wimbledon showing as well. Johnson looks to be returning to his old form after returning from an injury that slowed down the start of his season. This is a tight matchup for us, but I like the upside of savings on Johnson here in an America v. America matchup at Newport.

Cheat Sheet