DraftKings Tennis DFS Core Plays & Cheat Sheet – Wimbledon – July 5, 2021 (7/5/21) – FantasyCruncher.com DFS Articles & Insights – fantasycruncher.com

Welcome back everyone to Tennis content on FantasyCruncher.com. This content comes in preparation for FantasyCruncher launching our Tennis optimizer, which will be available in the near future, as well as projections.

Andrey Rublev: $10,200 (vs. Fucsovics)

Rublev hasn’t had the easiest path here, but certainly not the toughest either as he has bested Lloyd Harris, Federico Delbonis, and Fabio Fognini all in four sets or better. Rublev has a power game that translates very well to grass and Rublev here holds a large Elo advantage over his opponent in Fucsovics whom Rublev is no stranger against. These two have already met four times in 2021, with Rublev taking all matches as wins – three of them being straight-set victories, and one being a walk-over. The only time Fucsovics has bested Rublev was way back in 2016 on clay courts and this will be the first-ever grass-court meeting between the two. However, hard courts have held the last three meetings and their last matchup at the Miami Masters wasn’t even close, with Rublev dominating 6-2, 6-1. Grass courts here give the edge to Rublev, and the form and confidence an opponent he has routinely beat has him in the driver’s seat here. Rublev is a -600 favorite here and holds equal upside to guys priced above him so while the savings isn’t huge, it is better than nothing.

Elena Rybakina: $6,400 (vs. Sabalenka)

As we get to the round of 16 in this tournament, we are going to be a little bit more hard-pressed on the value as we are going to have talented, good-form matchups all the way around. Elena Rybankina has yet to drop a set as she has cruised to wins over Mladenovic, Liu, and Rogers, with just 17 games lost throughout the three matches. Sabalenka cruised through Niculescu in round one, but ran into a little bit of trouble against Boulter in round two, dropping 12 games and losing a set – but bounced back with a strong win over Osorio Serrano on Friday, winning in straight sets and dropping just three total games. Sabalenka has had a great year, posting a 32-10 record and pulling two titles. But Rybankina has had a good year in her own right, while her 18-11 record isn’t flashy, she did make a QF run at the French Open and a SF run at Eastbourne last week. These two have met twice, with Sabalenka winning both on hard courts, but both matches also have gone to three sets. The Elo ranking on grass isn’t that advantageous towards Sabalenka and -160 odds aren’t that wide either. There is a $2,300 pricing gap between these two players, but the skill gap in this match feels way tighter than that. This match will come down to who doesn’t create unforced errors and beat themselves as both have a lot of power in their game. Sabalenka has been prone to beating herself in the past as we saw that a little bit in round two against Katie Boulter. If Rybakina can keep up her 85% first serve rate, I think she wins this match – though I also think this match goes three sets no matter who wins.

Cheat Sheet (Optimizer/Projections coming soon)