DFS Analysis for Gane vs Volkov from The UFC Apex on Fanduel (6/26/21)
The UFC is back in Las Vegas for MMA action at their Apex facility. Here are two of my favorite underdog plays based on their value in DFS contests on Fanduel on Saturday.
DANIEL PINEDA (FD $10) – Pineda had a significant career setback in 2019 after testing positive for a banned substance and having two first round finishes overturned and ruled no contest prior to entering the UFC. Had those victories been upheld he would have had a 7 fight win streak (with finishes in all 7 of them) coming into his last fight with Cub Swanson. Pineda lost that fight bringing his UFC record to 1-1 after scoring a 2nd round TKO of Herbert Burns in his octagon debut. He faces Andre Fili on Saturday who has struggled of late narrowly winning just 1 of his last 3 by split decision over Charles Jourdain.
Caveman’s advice: Pineda is a finisher – no doubt about that. He has 27 career victories with all 27 coming inside the distance. He has 9 wins by KO/TKO and 18 wins by submission demonstrating a fully capable game on both his feet and on the ground. He did lose his most recent fight, but since 2014 he has not lost consecutive fights. His opponent, Fili, has a great deal more experience at the UFC level, but with a record of 9-7 with the promotion he is hardly a world-beater. This fight figures to be closely contested with Pineda being the more proven finisher. At his salary, Pineda makes a good GPP play with a big upside.
(At the time of this writing, Daniel Pineda is +184 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 45.02 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
JULIJA STOLIARENKO (FD $8) – When looking for underdog plays (especially in GPP formats) in DFS, I always like to look for fighters with strong grappling against opponents who primarily do their work on their feet. Stoliarenko is exactly this kind of fighter. She has a career record of 9-4-2 with 8 wins by submission in her 9 victories. She fights Julia Avila who is a striker by nature. Avila is great at what she does, but on the ground she will be a a severe disadvantage against Stoliarenko who knows how to finish when she takes her opponents to the ground.
Caveman’s advice: Stoliarenko has a hell of a submission game. If she can get this fight to the ground with time to work with, she has a great shot at scoring a major upset and putting up a very good score at a super low salary. This upside potential paired with minimal risk, make her an intriguing GPP play on Saturday. It is best to exercise some caution here as she has a high probability of being a dud here, but in mass multi-entry contests she must be part of your overall portfolio of fighters.
(At the time of this writing, Julija Stoliarenko is +268 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 39.51 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
