DraftKings Xfinity NASCAR DFS – Pocono Green 225 – June 27, 2021 – FantasyCruncher.com DFS Articles & Insights – fantasycruncher.com

Core Plays

Justin Allgaier – DK: $10,400 – Starting 2nd

We travel to the 2.5-mile track at Pocono and while there won’t be a ton of laps led and fast laps to go around with a lesser amount of laps, playing the place differential game may not be the way to go this week. Pocono is not a track that is entirely easy to pass at, so we reach a tricky spot where guys upfront may actually hold more value than normal when we typically would be focusing on further back starters. Essentially what I am saying, is form and strong driving is what are actually going to be the most important things to focus on this week. I know that might sound a little bit silly, but rostering a “bad” driver with differential upside is a pretty standard strategy for Nascar DFS and fading the front of the pact is sometimes smart. This week my general strategy is to roster the front and try to grab as many laps led as possible as while there aren’t a ton up for grabs, it will be the difference in the end for getting the “dominator” for this race. Harrison Burton starts on the pole here, so it will be crucial for Allgaier to grab the lead at some point in the first stage to take advantage of laps led and fast laps but Allgaier’s form over his last few races has been strong with back to back second-place finishes at Texas and Nashville. The recent history for Allgaier on tracks of 2-miles or longer is a little bumpy, but overall he does have a win at Indy and 14 top-five finishes. Harrison Burton at $9,300 starting on the pole is in play here too, but I like Allgaier’s skill overall a bit more.

Brett Moffitt – DK: $6,700 – Starting 17th

While above I highlighted that Pocono is a tough track to pass at, it also can cause some chaos at times as only half the field finished on the lead lap last year at Pocono. There are really a bunch of different ways to attack value this week, as while I hold true to saying differential could be harder to grab, we also will need some luck. If we want to operate under the idea that only half the field will finish on the lead lap again, then some funky things are going to happen in the middle of this race. Loris Hezemans is just $4,600 starting 39th in actually good equipment this week. Most weeks this would be a smash guy for me, but the uncertainty of this race has been wary. Jeff Earnhardt falls into this too, at just $5,600 and a starting position of 38th it is tempting to hope he can climb to the mid-’20s. With an average finish of 26th on the year, it isn’t unreasonable – though we know Earnhardt is a guy who also sees mechanical issues frequently. Brett Moffitt fits more into the “safety net” for me this week, as he is also a bit of a fall from grace guy who used to be priced in the lower $9,000 range and is now just $6,700. So what caused the price drops? Well, it was actually a bit unwarranted, his price dropped from $7,200 to $5,700 in early May after a 41, 27, 30 fantasy point week. In 15 races, Moffitt still has five top-ten finishes and has an average finish of 16.9 and 24 fantasy points per race. When we break it all down, this is the highest FPPG on a driver at this low of a price and while Moffitt has stumbled a bit recently, he did manage an eighth-place finish at Texas two weeks ago. If Moffitt is running right, he can still grab some differential, but more so maintain his higher starting point. If you want to get risky, I will highlight some differential options in the cheat sheet below.

Cheat Sheet