
We get our first five-game slate of the Summer with four matches that are poised to be blowouts. However, we did see some upsets on Friday, so lets see if there are any we can take advantage of on Saturday.
I am going to be honest, there isn’t going to be a ton to touch on here or spend copious amounts of time breaking down as the LPL has three matches with three playoff teams from Spring taking on three of the current worst teams of the split. We will start at the lowest odds and work our way up where we have Rare Atom taking on Victory5. Rare Atom made the playoffs last split as a very improved team and sit at 2-1 during the Summer. Their opponent is V5, who is 0-2 and 0-4 in their games, and as they are in rebuilding mode per se, they also look to be one of the worst teams in the LPL. Three starters for V5 rank in the top 20 for most deaths, with ZYF averaging 4.75 deaths per game. Cube and FoFo for RA both have over a 75% kill participation, so for me in a game that could feature a lot of slaying, these are two guys I absolutely want in my lineups. Pricing is a little weird for RA though on the slate. Due to so many huge favorites, and RA being a -850 favorite but it actually being the third-best odds, they are priced anywhere between most expensive and fourth expensive at their positions. When it comes to the total upside, I think RA may be in the best spot on the slate as I view V5 as the current basement team as through four games, they only have a total of 15 kills.
The other two massive favorites in the LPL are FPX as a -1450 favorite over ThunderTalk Gaming and EDG as a -2250 favorite over Rogue Warriors. The verdict is out on who would win a match between Rogue Warriors and V5, but both of these teams are very bad and RW and TT have the Spring Split to back up that statement. Between TT, RW, and V5 these teams are a combined 0-7 and 1-14 in games with the lone game win coming from Rogue Warriors. The only thing preventing me from stopping this here and moving on is the fact that OMG upset RNG on Friday in three games. Anything can happen in League of Legends, but right now we are on a clean slate with three teams so far ahead of their competition in skillset that it is hard to dissect it past this point. EDG is my preferred target, as they have looked the best during this split with a 3-0 (6-1) record. Jiejie currently leads the LPL in KDA at 11.5 and Meiko sits fourth at 8.92 – Viper, Scout, and Flandre are also in the top 20, so it shows how dominant this team has been. EDG is similar to RA, as their prices are stretched a bit here, though they sit towards the most expensive at more positions.
In the LCK, Damwon is a -600 favorite over DRX – a team DWG has handled in dominant fashion in recent memory and DRX seems to be going the wrong direction as they are 0-3 on the split. Khan is the most expensive Top laner on this slate, but Showmaker and Ghost are the fourth most expensive MID/ADC combo. For this reason, I think a three-stack DWG with Showmaker and Ghost hold as much upside as the LPL teams above. In preference, I try to target LPL over LCK as there is a bit more aggression and LCK games can stall towards the beginning a lot. That being said, DWG isn’t a typical LCK team that shys from fights, and given DRX current form, they should be able to take as they please. The final game in the LCK is Afreeca against KT Rolster in a pretty dead-even match. AF sits at 2-1, while KT at 1-2, but KT’s win was an upset over DWG. KT is a slight favorite here, therefore we can find KT $200 more expensive at each position. Savings will be pretty critical on this slate, and with there not really being a live underdog, I think AF is a strong salary saver, but also could end up higher owned than normal as they will be the “obvious” savings choice. The cheat sheet below won’t be anything too original, but rostering a favorite is praying you get an OMG type upset from Friday – those will happen, but in the long run it is -EV.
Cheat Sheet
| $ Tier | CPTN | TOP | JNG | MID | ADC | SUP | TEAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | FoFo (11.7k / 127.950) (14.85k / 127.950) | Khan (7k / 67.63) (7.9k / 67.63) | Tian (7.4k / 80.20) (8.5k / 80.20) | FoFo (7.8k / 85.30) (9.9k / 85.30) | Viper (8k / 78.19) (10.1k / 78.19) | Meiko (6.4k / 62.85) (7.4k / 62.85) | EDward Gaming (5.8k / 55.68) (7.9k / 55.68) |
| Doinb (11.4k / 136.905) (13.65k / 136.905) | Flandre (6.8k / 69.55) (8.2k / 69.55) | JieJie (7.2k / 74.55) (9k / 74.55) | Doinb (7.6k / 91.27) (9.1k / 91.27) | Lwx (7.8k / 88.97) (10k / 88.97) | Crisp (6.2k / 61.53) (7.3k / 61.53) | FunPlus Phoenix (5.6k / 52.80) (7.8k / 52.80) | |
| iBoy (11.4k / 128.025) (13.35k / 128.025) | Nuguri (6.6k / 63.54) (8.1k / 63.54) | Canyon (7k / 76.74) (8.6k / 76.74) | Scout (7.4k / 79.19) (9.2k / 79.19) | iBoy (7.6k / 85.35) (8.9k / 85.35) | Hang (6k / 73.61) (7.2k / 73.61) | Rare Atom (5.4k / 54.09) (7.7k / 54.09) | |
| Medium | Scout (11.1k / 118.785) (13.8k / 118.785) | Cube (6.4k / 70.75) (8k / 70.75) | Leyan (6.8k / 71.12) (8.7k / 71.12) | ShowMaker (7.2k / 89.17) (8.8k / 89.17) | Ghost (7.4k / 81.74) (9.8k / 81.74) | BeryL (5.6k / 58.96) (7.1k / 58.96) | DWG Kia (5.2k / 57.49) ( / 57.49) |
| Ghost (11.1k / 122.610) (14.7k / 122.610) | |||||||
| JieJie (10.8k / 111.825) (13.5k / 111.825) | |||||||
| ShowMaker (10.8k / 133.755) (13.2k / 133.755) | |||||||
| Low | Leyan (10.2k / 106.680) (13.05k / 106.680) | Kiin (5.8k / 51.36) (7.7k / 51.36) | Dread (6.4k / 43.02) (9.6k / 43.02) | Fly (6.6k / 53.06) (8.3k / 53.06) | Leo (7k / 32.40) (7.4k / 32.40) | Lehends (5.2k / 34.96) (6.9k / 34.96) | Afreeca Freecs (4.6k / 37.33) (7.4k / 37.33) |
| Fly (9.9k / 79.590) (12.45k / 79.590) | |||||||