Fight Study (5/8/21)
The UFC’s flyweight division takes center stage as the division’s 9th ranked contender, Michelle Waterson, faces the 6th ranked contender, Marina Rodriguez, from the UFC’s Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. Rodriguez is a significant favorite and she will carry the higher DFS salaries in this bout. She is priced at $9,200 on DraftKings and at $20 on Fanduel. Waterson is priced much less and can be rostered for $7,000 and $14 respectively. This is a Main Event and has been scheduled for 5 rounds of MMA action. It is expected to go the distance as a -180 favorite to reach a decision.
Waterson is coming off of an impressive win over Angela Hill in September of 2020. She is 18-8 as a professional with 3 wins by KO/TKO, 9 wins by submission and 6 wins by decision. This will be her first fight at 125 lb. with her previous UFC bouts all being fought at 115 lb. Waterson is a great striker and her karate background has provided her with a full arsenal of kicks to accompany her fists. She will give up 3 inches in height as well as 3 inches in reach on Saturday which will likely encourage her to use her kicks with greater frequency. She is also the much more accomplished grappler in this contest and she should look to change levels if possible.
Rodriguez is coming off of a stunning upset of Amanda Ribas after getting the TKO finish in the second round of their fight in January of this year. She is a high level striker with a record of 13-1-2 with 6 wins by KO/TKO, 1 win by submission and 6 wins by decision. Like Waterson, this will be her first UFC fight in the flyweight division with her previous 6 UFC fights being contested in the strawweight division. She has a tendency to fight in close fights. In her 6 UFC fights she is 3-1-2 with 2 draws and 1 split decision loss already to her credit. She has never fought in championship rounds, however, and it remains to be seen how she will fare in the later rounds of a 5 round fight. Waterson has gone beyond the 3rd round in 3 fights to date.
I predict a very active and close fight in this contest. Rodriguez has the better chance at a finish, but if this fight is contended on the ground, Waterson has the skills to get a submission. This fight is a favorite to go the distance, however, and it is likely to be decided by the judges. Waterson will need to bring her kicks into play in order to offset Rodriguez’s reach and height advantages. Additionally, Waterson will need to mix in takedown attempts to keep her opponent off-balance. Rodriguez will have a big advantage with her fists, but Waterson brings enough additional skills to this MMA contest to keep this one close. I expect this fight will go the full 25 minutes with Rodriguez having the best of things early, but with Waterson being able to make it close down the stretch.
With 5 rounds to work with, I like the scoring potential of both fighters and would even consider playing both sides of this one on the same lineup (as always when suggesting of playing both sides of the same fight, I must remind DFS players that this is not my favorite strategy as it has a lot of potential to disappoint). Given Waterson’s low, low salary on DraftKings, I like her a lot as a cash play with little risk and plenty of upside. Overall, I give Rodriguez a better chance to win, but I believe the odds on this fight should be closer. I give Waterson a legitimate chance and win or lose expect her to get in her shots. For this reason, I’m giving Waterson a fair amount of exposure due to her much lower salary. Rodriguez will definitely get some love from me in GPP contests, however, as she does have the much higher ceiling of the two fighters.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. For more advice on DraftKings contests, click HERE. For advice on Fanduel contests, click HERE. Good luck with your lineups!
