DFS Analysis for Rodriguez vs Waterson from The UFC Apex on Fanduel (5/8/21)
The UFC is back in Las Vegas for MMA action at their Apex facility. Here are two of my favorite underdog plays based on their value in DFS contests on Fanduel on Saturday.
MAURICE GREENE (FD $9) – Greene is no UFC all-star, but his submission game is one of the most dangerous in the heavyweight division. He is 9-5 overall with 2 wins by KO/TKO, 5 wins by submission and 2 wins by decision. He faces Marcos Rogerio de Lima who is 17-7 with 5 of his 7 losses coming by way of submission. In a strictly upright fight, Greene would be at a disadvantage despite his 6 inch height advantage and his 7 inch reach advantage. However, if he can change levels on Rogerio de Lima, his chances at a submission victory are good.
Caveman’s advice: Greene’s salary is so very low that he makes a good underdog play in GPP contests given his clear path to victory. Rogerio de Lima has a very clear weakness on the ground with 71% of his losses coming by submission. Greene should be able to use his length to keep his opponent off guard and if he can parlay this into takedowns anything is possible. His salary will allow for better fighters on the same lineup and that makes him worth measured exposure in multi-entry contests.
(At the time of this writing, Maurice Greene is +156 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 44.61 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
PHILLIP HAWES (FD $14) – Hawes is a perfect 2-0 in the UFC and has won his last 6 fights overall. He is a powerful striker with solid wrestling, and his professional record stands at 10-2 overall with 7 wins by KO/TKO, 2 wins by submission and 1 win by decision. His 90% finishing rate in victory shows his ability to finish fights, and with 7 first round finishes he has demonstrated his ability to do it quickly. He will face Kyle Daukaus who is 1-1 in the UFC. Daukaus is a skilled submission artist, but Hawes’ strength and wrestling skills make him a difficult opponent to submit. Hawes comes in as a narrow underdog in this fight.
Caveman’s advice: I like Hawes to get the upset in this fight. Daukaus is 3 inches taller, but Hawes has the longer reach by 1.5 inches. As a betting underdog with a below average salary, Hawes makes a great cash play and a solid GPP play as well. Daukaus cannot be counted out in this fight, but I give Hawes the better chance to win and the higher scoring potential in this matchup. He will need to keep Daukaus off of his back, but if he can manage that, I see him controlling this fight and getting a fairly easy victory.
(At the time of this writing, Phillip Hawes is +117 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 50.42 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!
