Fight Study (4/17/21)
In back to back weeks, the UFC’s middleweight division takes center stage as the Main Event when the 8th ranked contender, Kelvin Gastelum, faces the number 1 ranked conteder, Robert Whittaker, in Las Vegas on Saturday. This fight was scheduled to happen in 2019, but Whittaker had emergency surgery preventing the fight from happening. Two years later, the fight is on and Whittaker is the heavy favorite. He will also carry the higher salaries in DFS contests. He is priced at $9,100 on DraftKings and $21 on Fanduel. Gastelum is available for $7,100 and $15 repectively. This fight is scheduled for five rounds of MMA action, and at -130 to reach a decision, it is a small favorite to go the distance.
Gastelum had a bounce back win two months ago after losing 3 straight prior to that fight. He has an overall record of 16-6 and 1 no contest with 6 wins by KO/TKO, 4 wins by submission and 6 wins by decision. He has a solid overall game, but gives up 3 inches in height and 2 inches in reach to Whittaker on Saturday. This will present a lot of challenges for Gastelum who still needs to prove his is better than the fighter that lost 3 straight prior to 2021. To be fair, those losses were quality ones at the hands of middleweight champ, Israel Adesanya, as well as Darren Till and Jack Hermansson. Now he must face the top ranked contender in the division.
Over the last 7 years, Whittaker has lost just once. That was to the current middleweight champion, Adesanya. He has a career record of 22-5 with 9 wins by KO/TKO, 5 wins by submission and 8 wins by decision. He fought twice in 2020, getting unanimous decision victories over Darren Till and Jared Cannonier. After losing to Stephen Thompson in February of 2014, Whittaker went on to average 98.1 FPPF over his next 7 fights. Since then, however, his scoring has dropped dramatically, averaging 68.4 FPPF over his next 5 fights. He will want to return to that dominating form again in this fight as a win over Gastelum will likely set him up for a rematch with Adesanya who took the belt from Whittaker in 2019.
Whether or not Gastelum is back to his best or still the fighter who has gone 1-3 over his last 4 fights, he is in trouble against Whittaker on Saturday. Whittaker is bigger, stronger and has had high level success in this division (he is 9-1 since moving up to the middeweight divsion) for the better part of a decade. He is has solid striking and will mix in takedowns if provided the opportunity. I believe he will control the pace of this fight and expect a technical fight that will lead to a unanimous decision. I don’t expect a finish, but it is possible. Gastelum will have his moments, but outside of landing a big shot, I don’t see him getting a win here.
The real question in this contest is whether or not Whittaker can live up to his price tag. To do so, he will likely need a finish, which is possible, but not expected. I expect him to dominate Gastelum for the majority of this fight, but don’t see his scoring bringing much value to his cost on either platform. For this reason, I prefer him as a cash play as I think he wins easily and scores decently, but not necessarily enough to justify heavy GPP play. Gastelum is worth a small number of lineups in 150-max contests, but I don’t see him having enough potential in this fight for any more than that. Whittaker has much more potential to put up a big score, but I would use him moderately in GPP contests at his inflated salary.
That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. For more advice on DraftKings contests, click HERE. For advice on Fanduel contests, click HERE. Good luck with your lineups!
